Raleigh, N.C. – John Lynch was re-elected by a closer-than-expected margin last November, beating John Stephen by less than 8 points, his closest margin since his 2004 ouster of incumbent Republican Craig Benson by only 2 points. Lynch won by landslide margins of 47 and 43 points in 2006 and 2008. While he will not likely win by those proportions again, PPP’s latest poll of his likely bid for a fifth term shows he should easily brush aside any Republican opponent.
Until last fall, Lynch had unsurprisingly been one of the most popular governors in the country, but in PPP’s final poll of the 2010 election, his net job approval-disapproval margin had fallen to a still healthy +12, 51-39. That margin has since doubled to a +25. Now 58% approve, and only a third disapprove, tying him with California’s Jerry Brown for the fifth most popular of the 35 currently serving governors on which PPP has polled. His improvement has come not with his own party but with Republicans and independents. Indpendents have moved from 54-34 to 64-27, and Republicans from 22-66 to 27-59.
By contrast, Lynch’s potential challengers are all disliked. State Senate Majority Leader Jeb Bradley and activist Ovide Lamontagne have identical 29-35 favorable-unfavorable margins, and from there it is downhill. Former Senator John E. Sununu posts a 33-46 spread, and 2010 loser Stephen a 22-36.
With such a disparity in voters’ views of Lynch and the various Republicans, it is no surprise he routs them all. Sununu comes closest, but still trails by 18 points, 54-36. Bradley and Lamontagne lag by identical 57-33 margins, and Stephen by 20 points more than his 2010 loss, 57-29. Lynch brings disapproving Democrats back to the fold, losing only 7-11% of them, while earning 13-20% of the GOP vote and winning with independents by 30-39 points.
“It’s a sign that 2010 is in the rear view mirror when you see Lynch up 28 points on Stephen after earning only a single digit win against him in November,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Things are looking up for Democrats in New Hampshire.”
PPP surveyed 769 New Hampshire voters from March 31st to April 3rd. The survey’s margin of error is +/-3.5%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
John Lynch’s job performance? If you approve,
press 1. If you disapprove, press 2. If you’re
not sure, press 3.
Approve …………………………………………………. 58%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 33%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 9%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jeb Bradley? If favorable, press 1. If
unfavorable, press 2. If you’re not sure, press
3.
Favorable……………………………………………….. 29%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 35%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 36%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ovide Lamontagne? If favorable, press 1. If
unfavorable, press 2. If you’re not sure, press
3.
Favorable……………………………………………….. 29%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 35%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 37%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of John Stephen? If favorable, press 1. If
unfavorable, press 2. If you’re not sure, press
3.
Favorable……………………………………………….. 22%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 36%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 42%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of John E. Sununu? If favorable, press 1. If
unfavorable, press 2. If you’re not sure, press
3.
Favorable……………………………………………….. 33%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 46%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 20%
Q6 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Democrat John Lynch and Republican Jeb
Bradley, who would you vote for? If John
Lynch, press 1. If Jeb Bradley, press 2. If
you’re undecided, press 3.
Lynch …………………………………………………….. 57%
Bradley…………………………………………………… 33%
Undecided………………………………………………. 10%
Q7 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Democrat John Lynch and Republican Ovide
Lamontagne, who would you vote for? If John
Lynch, press 1. If Ovide Lamontagne, press 2.
If you’re undecided, press 3.
Lynch …………………………………………………….. 57%
Lamontagne……………………………………………. 33%
Undecided………………………………………………. 10%
Q8 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Democrat John Lynch and Republican John
Stephen, who would you vote for? If John
Lynch, press 1. If John Stephen, press 2. If
you’re undecided, press 3.
Lynch …………………………………………………….. 57%
Stephen …………………………………………………. 29%
Undecided………………………………………………. 14%
Q9 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Democrat John Lynch and Republican John E.
Sununu, who would you vote for? If John
Lynch, press 1. If John E. Sununu, press 2. If
you’re undecided, press 3.
Lynch …………………………………………………….. 54%
Sununu ………………………………………………….. 36%
Undecided………………………………………………. 11%
Q10 Who did you vote for President in 2008? If
John McCain, press 1. If Barack Obama,
press 2. If someone else or you don’t
remember, press 3.
McCain…………………………………………………… 42%
Obama…………………………………………………… 51%
Someone Else/Don’t Remember………………… 8%
Q11 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 9%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 21%
Moderate………………………………………………… 32%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 23%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 15%
Q12 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%
Q13 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a
Republican, press 2. If you are an independent
or identify with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 35%
Republican……………………………………………… 29%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 36%
Q14 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 95%
Other……………………………………………………… 5%
Q15 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 8%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 26%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 44%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 22%
