Raleigh, N.C. – Governor John Lynch fares better than his party’s candidates for Congressional races this fall, beating all potential GOP opponents in general election match-ups and posting a positive job approval rating.
Lynch tops Jack Kimball (47-35), John Stephen (47-36), and Karen Testerman (47-29). Lynch stands essentially the same with voters, no matter the opponent. All three Republicans are viewed unfavorably by either 8 or 9 points, but 68 or 85% of voters have no opinion on each of them.
Though only 44% of voters approve of Lynch’s job performance, to 42% disapproving, those break-even marks best those of former Governor, current Senator Jeanne Shaheen (42-48) and Congresswoman Carol Shea-Porter (41-50), and are better than the favorability numbers for Congressman Paul Hodes (32-39). Hodes is running for Senate; an earlier PPP release showed Hodes losing to the two leading Republicans in that race. PPP has shown Shea-Porter dead even in her bid to return to the House.
As independents go, so goes Lynch. Unlike the other Democrats, Lynch is viewed positively by voters who don’t identify with either major party, 44-43, mirroring his overall numbers. Similarly, in each of the three horseraces, Lynch gets 45% of the independent vote and beats the Republican by only one point less than he does among the general electorate.
“It looks like Lynch won’t have to start packing up the governor’s mansion anytime soon,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “But being under 50% against three unknowns in this bad environment for Democrats means there is time for this to become a close race once the eventual Republican nominee is chosen.”
PPP surveyed 1,474 New Hampshire voters from April 17th to 18th. The survey’s margin of error is +/-2.6%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
Complete results are attached and can be found at www.publicpolicypolling.com.
If you would like an interview regarding this release, please contact Dean Debnam at (888) 621-6988 or 919-880-4888.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
John Lynch’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 44%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jack Kimball?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 3%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 12%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 85%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of John Stephen?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 12%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 20%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 68%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Karen Testerman?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 3%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 12%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 85%
Q5 If the candidates for Governor this fall were
Democrat John Lynch and Republican Jack
Kimball, who would you vote for?
John Lynch …………………………………………….. 47%
Jack Kimball……………………………………………. 35%
Undecided………………………………………………. 18%
Q6 If the candidates for Governor this fall were
Democrat John Lynch and Republican John
Stephen, who would you vote for?
John Lynch …………………………………………….. 47%
John Stephen………………………………………….. 36%
Undecided………………………………………………. 18%
Q7 If the candidates for Governor this fall were
Democrat John Lynch and Republican Karen
Testerman, who would you vote for?
John Lynch …………………………………………….. 47%
Karen Testerman …………………………………….. 29%
Undecided………………………………………………. 23%
Q8 Who did you vote for President last year? If
John McCain, press 1. If Barack Obama, press
2. If someone else or you don’t remember,
press 3.
McCain…………………………………………………… 46%
Obama…………………………………………………… 50%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 4%
Q9 Would you describe yourself as a liberal,
moderate, or conservative? If liberal, press 1. If
moderate, press 2. If conservative, press 3.
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 18%
Moderate………………………………………………… 47%
Conservative…………………………………………… 35%
Q10 If you are a woman, press 1, if a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%
Q11 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If you are a
Republican, press 2. If you are an independent
or identify with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 33%
Republican……………………………………………… 30%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 37%
Q12 If you are white, press one now. If other, press
2.
White …………………………………………………….. 95%
Other……………………………………………………… 5%
Q13 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1 now. If
you are 30 to 45, press 2. If you are 46 to 65,
press 3. If older, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 10%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 20%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 50%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%
Q14
1st…………………………………………………………. 44%
2nd………………………………………………………… 56%
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