Raleigh, N.C. – After surviving the Republican wave of 2010, New Hampshire Governor John Lynch will have little to worry about if he seeks another two year term in 2012. Lynch is very popular, boasting an approval rating of 57-33 (basically unchanged from 58-33 in April). Lynch locks in Democrats 84-10, is strong with independents, 52-35, and garners significant crossover support among Republicans, 33-56.
Unsurprisingly Lynch easily tops his potential opponents, earning majority support in every matchup. If former senator John Sununu makes a run for the governorship, Lynch would lead by double digits, 51-40 (54-36 in April). Lynch earns twice the crossover support as Sununu, and takes independents 47-37. Lynch leads by even wider margins against all others, leading 54-36 against activist Ovide Lamontagne (57-33), 54-35 (57-33) against New Hampshire Senate Majority Leader Jeb Bradley, and 55-34 (57-29) in a rematch with John Stephen.
If Lynch decides not to seek re-election, Democrats are going to have a much tougher time retaining the governorship. Former State Securities Director Mark Connolly trails Sununu 36-44, Lamontagne 34-40, Bradley 30-38, and ties Stephen 36-36. Similarly, former New Hampshire Senate Majority Leader Maggie Hassan trails Sununu 36-45, Lamontagne 35-41, Bradley 33-39, and Stephen 36-37. Former Portsmouth mayor Steve Marchand fares no better, losing to Sununu 35-44, Lamontagne 33-40, Bradley 32-38, and Stephen 34-36.
Aside from Lynch, all potential candidates are unpopular. Among the Republican candidates, Sununu is most popular with a 40-42 favorability rating. He is followed by Lamontagne at 31-33, Bradley at 27-37, and Stephen at 23-34. All of the Democrats are unknown, with none recognized by over a third of voters. This likely contributes to their deficits in hypothetical matchups. Marchand is most popular with an 8-18 rating and is followed by Hassan at 11-22 and Connolly at 6-21.
PPP surveyed 662 New Hampshire voters from June 30th to July 5th. No interviews were conducted on July 3rd or 4th.The margin of error for the survey is +/-3.8%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
John Lynch’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 57%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 33%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jeb Bradley?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 27%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 36%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mark Connolly?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 6%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 21%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 72%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Maggie Hassan?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 11%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 22%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 67%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Steve Marchand?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 8%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 18%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 74%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ovide Lamontagne?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 31%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 33%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 36%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of John Stephen?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 23%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 34%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 42%
Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of John Sununu?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 40%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%
Q9 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Democrat John Lynch and Republican Jeb
Bradley, who would you vote for?
John Lynch …………………………………………….. 54%
Jeb Bradley…………………………………………….. 35%
Undecided………………………………………………. 11%
Q10 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Democrat John Lynch and Republican Ovide
Lamontagne, who would you vote for?
John Lynch …………………………………………….. 54%
Ovide Lamontagne…………………………………… 36%
Undecided………………………………………………. 10%
Q11 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Democrat John Lynch and Republican John
Sununu, who would you vote for?
John Lynch …………………………………………….. 51%
John Sununu…………………………………………… 40%
Undecided………………………………………………. 8%
Q12 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Democrat John Lynch and Republican John
Stephen, who would you vote for?
John Lynch …………………………………………….. 55%
John Stephen………………………………………….. 34%
Undecided………………………………………………. 11%
Q13 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Democrat Mark Connolly and Republican Jeb
Bradley, who would you vote for?
Mark Connolly…………………………………………. 30%
Jeb Bradley…………………………………………….. 38%
Undecided………………………………………………. 31%
Q14 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Democrat Mark Connolly and Republican
Ovide Lamontagne, who would you vote for?
Mark Connolly…………………………………………. 34%
Ovide Lamontagne…………………………………… 40%
Undecided………………………………………………. 26%
Q15 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Democrat Mark Connolly and Republican John
Sununu, who would you vote for?
Mark Connolly…………………………………………. 36%
John Sununu…………………………………………… 44%
Undecided………………………………………………. 20%
Q16 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Democrat Mark Connolly and Republican John
Stephen, who would you vote for?
Mark Connolly…………………………………………. 36%
John Stephen………………………………………….. 36%
Undecided………………………………………………. 28%
Q17 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Democrat Maggie Hassan and Republican Jeb
Bradley, who would you vote for?
Maggie Hassan……………………………………….. 33%
Jeb Bradley…………………………………………….. 39%
Undecided………………………………………………. 28%
Q18 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Democrat Maggie Hassan and Republican
Ovide Lamontagne, who would you vote for?
Maggie Hassan……………………………………….. 35%
Ovide Lamontagne…………………………………… 41%
Undecided………………………………………………. 24%
Q19 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Democrat Maggie Hassan and Republican
John Sununu, who would you vote for?
Maggie Hassan……………………………………….. 36%
John Sununu…………………………………………… 45%
Undecided………………………………………………. 19%
Q20 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Democrat Maggie Hassan and Republican
John Stephen, who would you vote for?
Maggie Hassan……………………………………….. 36%
John Stephen………………………………………….. 37%
Undecided………………………………………………. 27%
Q21 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Democrat Steve Marchand and Republican
Jeb Bradley, who would you vote for?
Steve Marchand………………………………………. 32%
Jeb Bradley…………………………………………….. 38%
Undecided………………………………………………. 31%
Q22 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Democrat Steve Marchand and Republican
Ovide Lamontagne, who would you vote for?
Steve Marchand………………………………………. 33%
Ovide Lamontagne…………………………………… 40%
Undecided………………………………………………. 27%
Q23 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Democrat Steve Marchand and Republican
John Sununu, who would you vote for?
Steve Marchand………………………………………. 35%
John Sununu…………………………………………… 44%
Undecided………………………………………………. 21%
Q24 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Democrat Steve Marchand and Republican
John Stephen, who would you vote for?
Steve Marchand………………………………………. 34%
John Stephen………………………………………….. 36%
Undecided………………………………………………. 30%
Q25 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 14%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 20%
Moderate………………………………………………… 26%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 21%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 19%
Q26 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 52%
Man……………………………………………………….. 48%
Q27 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 34%
Republican……………………………………………… 32%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 33%
Q28 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 93%
Other……………………………………………………… 7%
Q29 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 10%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 20%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 45%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 25%