Raleigh, N.C. – There has been very little attention paid to any of the statewide Republican primaries in North Carolina. So unlike in the Democratic gubernatorial field, no one in any of the GOP races has truly broken out of the pack since PPP last released a poll a week ago—that is, other than Pat McCrory, who continues to have the gubernatorial nomination locked up. But the picture is becoming a bit clearer as the primary nears.
Dale Folwell has inched ahead a bit in the lieutenant governor’s race. He led 15-12-12-8 over Dan Forest, Tony Gurley, and Grey Mills in the last poll, and now leads with 20% to Forest’s 15%, Gurley’s 11%, and Mills’ 10%. 40% are still undecided, down from 51%. Folwell has cut into Gurley’s home turf (the Triangle)—Gurley led him 32-10 there previously, and that is now only 31-17. Folwell has also racked up votes in his home, the Triad, upping his lead from 17 to 22 points over Forest. Forest, meanwhile, has taken a lead in the area code where most of the votes come from (Charlotte), moving from 11% to 22% there, with Folwell at 13% and Mills at 11%.
Greg Dority has flipped places with Debra Goldman in the Auditor contest, but both are still in a dead heat. Dority has 18% to Goldman’s 16% and Fern Shubert’s 9%. The split was 11-12-7 last time. Undecideds are down from 61% to 51%.
Richard Morgan now has a quarter of the vote for Insurance Commissioner, with two others each at half that amount of support. He had 17% last week.
Kenn Gardner continues to have a slight lead over the field for Secretary of State, with 20% to Ed Goodwin’s 11%, A.J. Daoud’s 9%, and Michael Beitler’s 7%. Last time, it was 17-10-6-6.
John Tedesco is hanging onto the same slim 16-13 edge over Richard Alexander for Public Instruction. Steve Troxler has increased his lead for renomination for Agriculture Secretary from 41-17 to 48-17 over Bill McManus. And Steve Royal has upped his lead over Frank Roche for Treasurer from 16-11 to 27-17 in the last month.
PPP surveyed 486 likely North Carolina Republican primary voters from April 27th to 29th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-4.4%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Pat McCrory?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 63%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 12%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 25%
Q2 The Republican candidates for Governor are
Jim Harney, Scott Jones, Jim Mahan, Pat
McCrory, Charles Kenneth Moss, and Paul
Wright. If the election was today, who would
you vote for?
Jim Harney……………………………………………… 4%
Scott Jones…………………………………………….. 2%
Jim Mahan ……………………………………………… 2%
Pat McCrory……………………………………………. 66%
Charles Kenneth Moss……………………………… 0%
Paul Wright …………………………………………….. 2%
Undecided………………………………………………. 24%
Q3 The Republican candidates for Lieutenant
Governor are Dale Folwell, Dan Forest, Tony
Gurley, Grey Mills, and Arthur Jason Rich. If
the election was today, who would you vote
for?
Dale Folwell ……………………………………………. 20%
Dan Forest ……………………………………………… 15%
Tony Gurley ……………………………………………. 11%
Grey Mills……………………………………………….. 10%
Arthur Jason Rich ……………………………………. 3%
Undecided………………………………………………. 40%
Q4 The Republican candidates for State Auditor
are Joseph Hank DeBragga, Greg Dority,
Debra Goldman, Fern Shubert, and Rudy
Wright. If the election was today, who would
you vote for?
Joseph Hank DeBragga……………………………. 3%
Greg Dority …………………………………………….. 18%
Debra Goldman ………………………………………. 16%
Fern Shubert…………………………………………… 9%
Rudy Wright ……………………………………………. 3%
Undecided………………………………………………. 51%
Q5 The Republican candidates for Agriculture
Commissioner are Bill McManus and Steve
Troxler. If the election was today, who would
you vote for?
Bill McManus ………………………………………….. 17%
Steve Troxler…………………………………………… 48%
Undecided………………………………………………. 35%
Q6 The Republican candidates for Insurance
Commissioner are Mike Causey, James
McCall, and Richard Morgan. If the election
was today, who would you vote for?
Mike Causey …………………………………………… 12%
James McCall …………………………………………. 12%
Richard Morgan ………………………………………. 25%
Undecided………………………………………………. 51%
Q7 The Republican candidates for Secretary of
State are Michael Beitler, A.J. Daoud, Kenn
Gardner, and Ed Goodwin. If the election was
today, who would you vote for?
Michael Beitler ………………………………………… 7%
A.J. Daoud……………………………………………… 9%
Kenn Gardner …………………………………………. 20%
Ed Goodwin ……………………………………………. 11%
Undecided………………………………………………. 52%
Q8 The Republican candidates for Superintendent
of Public Instruction are Richard Alexander,
Mark Crawford, Ray Ernest Martin, David
Scholl, and John Tedesco. If the election was
today, who would you vote for?
Richard Alexander …………………………………… 13%
Mark Crawford ………………………………………… 8%
Ray Ernest Martin ……………………………………. 5%
David Scholl……………………………………………. 6%
John Tedesco………………………………………….. 16%
Undecided………………………………………………. 52%
Q9 The Republican candidates for State Treasurer
are Frank Roche and Steve Royal. If the
election was today, who would you vote for?
Frank Roche …………………………………………… 17%
Steve Royal ……………………………………………. 27%
Undecided………………………………………………. 57%
Q10 Do you consider yourself to be a member of
the Tea Party?
Yes………………………………………………………… 35%
No …………………………………………………………. 50%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%
Q11 Are you an Evangelical Christian, or not?
Are an Evangelical…………………………………… 64%
Are not …………………………………………………… 36%
Q12 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 2%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 4%
Moderate………………………………………………… 16%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 33%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 45%
Q13 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 47%
Man……………………………………………………….. 53%
Q14 If you are a Republican, press 1. If an
independent, press 2.
Republican……………………………………………… 80%
Independent……………………………………………. 20%
Q15 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 28%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 39%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 33%
Q16 Have you already voted, either at an early
voting site or with an absentee ballot?
Yes………………………………………………………… 12%
No …………………………………………………………. 88%
Q17 Area Code
252………………………………………………………… 8%
336………………………………………………………… 22%
704………………………………………………………… 23%
828………………………………………………………… 14%
910………………………………………………………… 10%
919………………………………………………………… 22%
