Polls

Lieberman in Serious Trouble for 2012

| Tom Jensen

Header-poll-resultsRaleigh, N.C. – Joe Lieberman managed to leave his old party in 2006 after losing the Democratic primary to liberal insurgent Ned Lamont and still comfortably win re-election as an independent in a three-way contest.  But after endorsing John McCain over Barack Obama in 2008, Connecticut voters may finally have had enough.  Two-thirds of those likely to cast their ballots this fall are looking forward to voting Lieberman out of office in the next election—including 70% of Democrats, 61% of Republicans, and 63% of independents—while only a quarter are committed to re-electing him.  When stacked against 5th District Congressman Chris Murphy as the Democratic candidate and two different Republicans, Lieberman fails to get more than 20% of the vote in a three-way or a third against just Murphy.

Head-to-head, Murphy leads Lieberman, 47-33, winning independents 41-33, pulling 70% of Democrats, and holding Lieberman to 59% of Republicans. With Peter Schiff as the Republican nominee, Murphy gets 39% to Schiff’s 25% and Lieberman’s 19%.  At 24%, Lieberman’s GOP support is less than half of Schiff’s, and Murphy still gets 14% of Republicans.  Lieberman also earns only 18% of independents’ votes, and Murphy tops Schiff, 32-28.  Outgoing Governor Jodi Rell would be a stronger GOP choice than Schiff, closing the Murphy advantage to 37-29 and bringing Lieberman down to 17%.  Rell wins slightly more of Democrats and Republicans than Schiff, and tops among unaffiliateds, 33-29-18 over Murphy and Lieberman.

With a 31-57 job approval rating, Lieberman is tied with Ohio’s retiring George Voinovich for the fourth least popular of 60 senators PPP has polled in 2010.  That said, he is up significantly from the 25-67 mark measured in January.

“Democrats, Republicans, and independents in Connecticut agree on one thing: they want Joe Lieberman replaced in the US Senate,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling.  “His path to reelection, at least at this point a couple years away, looks extremely difficult.”

PPP surveyed 810 likely Connecticut voters from September 30th to October 2nd.  The survey’s margin of error is +/-3.4%.  Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.

Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Chris
Dodd’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 36%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 54%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%

Q2 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Joe
Lieberman’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 31%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 57%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%

Q3 Generally speaking in 2012 will you vote to
reelect Joe Lieberman or would you rather
replace him with someone else?
Vote to re-elect Lieberman………………………… 24%
Vote to replace him………………………………….. 66%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%

Q4 If the candidates for US Senate in 2012 were
Independent Joe Lieberman, Democrat Chris
Murphy, and Republican Peter Schiff who
would you vote for?
Joe Lieberman ………………………………………… 19%
Chris Murphy ………………………………………….. 39%
Peter Schiff …………………………………………….. 25%
Undecided………………………………………………. 17%

Q5 If the candidates for US Senate in 2012 were
Independent Joe Lieberman, Democrat Chris
Murphy, and Republican Jodi Rell who would
you vote for?
Joe Lieberman ………………………………………… 17%
Chris Murphy ………………………………………….. 37%
Jodi Rell …………………………………………………. 29%
Undecided………………………………………………. 16%

Q6 If the candidates for US Senate in 2012 were
just Independent Joe Lieberman and Democrat
Chris Murphy, who would you vote for?
Joe Lieberman ………………………………………… 33%
Chris Murphy ………………………………………….. 47%
Undecided………………………………………………. 20%

Q7 If there was an election for Congress today,
would you vote Democratic or Republican?
Democratic……………………………………………… 44%
Republican……………………………………………… 42%
Undecided………………………………………………. 14%

Q8 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 39%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 54%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 7%

Q9 If you are a liberal, press 1. If a moderate,
press 2. If a conservative, press 3.
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 19%
Moderate………………………………………………… 49%
Conservative…………………………………………… 32%

Q10 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 47%
Man……………………………………………………….. 53%

Q11 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 41%
Republican……………………………………………… 28%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 31%

Q12 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 77%
Other……………………………………………………… 23%

Q13 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 8%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 25%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 43%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 24%

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