Raleigh, N.C. – In PPP’s first measurement of the race, Tea Party favorite Paul LePage, GOP nominee for Maine governor, is leading Democrat Libby Mitchell, 43-29, among likely voters, with independent Eliot Cutler at 11% and two other independents totaling 6%.
Mitchell is clearly hurt by the three independents splitting 15% of the Democratic vote and LePage pulling 11% himself, to Mitchell’s 61%. LePage gets 75% of the GOP vote, with no one else getting more than 6%. LePage also leads Mitchell among unaffiliated voters, 39-21, with Cutler at 16%.
Mitchell is also not helped by the fact that President Obama now has only a 44-51 job performance mark. He won Maine by 17 points in 2008, but this year’s electorate voted for him by only 7 over John McCain. That ten-point swing explains much of LePage’s lead, and it corresponds to a two-point GOP turnout advantage in this Democratic state.
LePage and Mitchell have reverse personal favorability margins, with the Republican weighing in at 43-35 and the Democrat at 34-43. Republicans dislike Mitchell significantly more than Democrats dislike LePage, but the real difference comes among independents, who see LePage positively, 43-33, and Mitchell negatively, 28-39.
Most states with unpopular incumbent governors are ceding the seat to the opposite party, and Maine is no exception. Democrat John Baldacci has a 31-57 job approval rating.
“While Maine does have a peculiar history of independent governors and anti-establishment politics, you know things are bad for Democrats when this pretty reliably blue state in most other recent cycles is looking bad for the party at the gubernatorial level,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling.
PPP surveyed 1,468 likely Maine voters from September 2nd to 6th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-2.6%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
If you would like an interview regarding this release, please contact Dean Debnam at (888) 621-6988 or 919-880-4888.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 44%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 51%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 5%
Q2 Do you support or oppose President Obama’s
health care plan, or do you not have an
opinion?
Support ………………………………………………….. 41%
Oppose ………………………………………………….. 50%
No opinion………………………………………………. 9%
Q3 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
John Baldacci’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 31%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 57%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Libby Mitchell?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 34%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 23%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Paul LePage?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 43%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 35%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 21%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Eliot Cutler?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 20%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 35%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 45%
Q7 The candidates for Governor are Democrat
Libby Mitchell, Republican Paul LePage,
Independent Eliot Cutler, Independent Shawn
Moody, and Independent Kevin Scott. If the
election was today, who would you vote for?
Libby Mitchell ………………………………………….. 29%
Paul LePage …………………………………………… 43%
Eliot Cutler ……………………………………………… 11%
Shawn Moody …………………………………………. 5%
Kevin Scott……………………………………………… 1%
Undecided………………………………………………. 12%
Q8 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 44%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 51%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 5%
Q9 Would you describe yourself as a liberal,
moderate, or conservative?
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 19%
Moderate………………………………………………… 43%
Conservative…………………………………………… 38%
Q10 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%
Q11 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 37%
Republican……………………………………………… 39%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 25%
Q12 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 97%
Other……………………………………………………… 3%
