Raleigh, N.C. – Ever since taking his talents to Tallahassee, Florida Gov. Rick Scott has had a tough time in the arena of public opinion.
In December, he was awarded the dubious honor of least popular governor in the country after polling a 26% approval rating. In the last statewide poll of his approval rating in mid-April, he polled at 34% approval.
While his new approval rating—31%—isn’t the worst he’s ever polled, Scott may have finally hit rock bottom—he is now officially less popular than one of the most polarizing figures in American pop culture, 3-time NBA MVP LeBron James.
James, whose Miami Heat are vying for their second consecutive NBA Finals appearance and first championship since 2006, has a favorability rating of 32% among Floridians. Time—and wins and awards and highlight reel dunks—is proving to be an effective antidote for the maligned superstar. His favorability rating has improved 10 points since July, when Floridians were last polled on their opinion of the 8-time All-Star.
But things are far from getting better for Scott, who was elected with 49% of the vote in 2010. Nan Rich, minority leader of the Florida State Senate and the first declared Democratic 2014 gubernatorial candidate, already holds a 47-35 lead over Scott. To make matters worse, Rich carries just 14% name recognition in the state, giving credibility to the theory that literally anyone could beat Scott in 2014.
Scott’s undoing begins with dwindling support in his own party. Just 53% of Republicans approve of his job performance, down from 60% in April. 17% of Republicans would rather take their chances with unknown Democrat Nan Rich in the gubernatorial election than vote for Scott.
Scott is also struggling with women, with whom he has a 25% approval rating, and Independents (26% approval). Rich wins with Independents in a head-to-head matchup with Scott, 41-27.
Scott’s drop in approval ratings and glum 2014 outlook comes as his voter-elimination efforts are beginning to surface (and be scrutinized) nationally. A majority (50%) of Florida voters disapprove of Scott’s push to eliminate some people from the registered voter rolls. His effort is facing significant disapproval, despite only 5% of voters saying they know someone who has been removed from the registered voter rolls this year. 14% of Hispanics and 8% of African Americans say they know someone who has been scratched from the voter rolls this year, while only 3% of whites say they know someone.
Scott’s dismal reception in the Sunshine State may be turning Floridians against Republicans—Florida voters said they would vote Democratic over Republican 46-44 if there was an election for Congress held today. Independents would vote Democratic over Republican 40-38.
Florida voters are becoming more receptive to the idea of same-sex marriage. Floridians still think same-sex marriage should be illegal, but only by a 3-point margin (45-42), down from an 11-point margin (48-37) in October, when Florida voters were last polled on their opinion of same-sex marriage. 72% of Florida voters believe same-sex couples should either be allowed to marry or form civil unions, up from 69% in October. Once again, African American voters are leading the public opinion shift in favor of gay marriage. 49% of African Americans think same-sex marriage should be legal, up 26 points from October, and 66% believe in legalized same-sex marriage/civil unions, up from 50% in October.
While support for same-sex marriage or civil unions is undivided, Floridians’ support for LeBron, Dwyane Wade and the Heat is far from it. The Heat and their two superstars are divisive along a number of demographics, including race, age and political party.
The most profound divide is along racial lines. 75% of African Americans are rooting for the Heat to 29% of Whites; 63% of African Americans have a favorable opinion of LeBron to 26% of Whites; and Dwyane Wade has a 73% favorability rating with African Americans to a 30% favorability rating with Whites.
Young people are more supportive of the Miami Heat. 43% of young voters (age 18 to 29) are rooting for the Heat, while just 31% voters over 65 rooting for the Heat. 44% of young voters have a favorable opinion of LeBron, while just 25% of voters older than 65 do. The same goes for Wade—44% favorability with young voters to 27% with voters over 65.
47% of Democrats are rooting for Heat to 29% of Republicans. 42% of Democrats have favorable opinion of LeBron to 23% of Republicans. Dwyane Wade is similarly divisive, with 47% favorability rating among Democrats to 27% favorability among Republicans.
Heat power forward and 7-time All-Star Chris Bosh has a 25% favorability rating in Florida, and Heat coach Erik Spoelstra has a 20% favorability rating.
Orlando Magic center Dwight Howard, who was the focus of a drawn-out and theatrical trade controversy earlier in the season, is viewed favorably by 23% of Florida voters.
PPP surveyed 642 Florida voters from May 31st to June 3rd. The margin of error for the survey is +/-3.9%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Rick Scott’s job performance?
Approve…………….. 31%
Disapprove………… 56%
Not sure ……………. 13%
Q2 If there was an election for Congress today,
would you vote Democratic or Republican?
Democratic……………………………………………… 46%
Republican……………………………………………… 44%
Undecided………………………………………………. 10%
Q3 Do you think same-sex marriage should be
legal or illegal?
Legal……………………………………………………… 42%
Illegal …………………………………………………….. 45%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q4 Which of the following best describes your
opinion on gay marriage: gay couples should
be allowed to legally marry, or gay couples
should be allowed to form civil unions but not
legally marry, or there should be no legal
recognition of a gay couple’s relationship?
Gay couples should be allowed to legally
marry ……………………………………………………..37%
Gay couples should be allowed to form civil
unions but not marry …………………………………35%
There should be no legal recognition of a gay
couple’s relationship …………………………………26%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 3%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Nan Rich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 5%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 9%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 86%
Q6 If the candidates for Governor in 2014 were
Democrat Nan Rich and Republican Rick
Scott, who would you vote for?
Nan Rich………………………………………………… 47%
Rick Scott……………………………………………….. 35%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%
Q7 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Scott’s push to eliminate some people from the
registered voter rolls?
Approve …………………………………………………. 34%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 50%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%
Q8 Do you know anyone who has gotten thrown
off the registered voter rolls this year, or not?
Know someone who has…………………………… 5%
Do not ……………………………………………………. 87%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%
Q9 Are you rooting for the Miami Heat to win the
NBA Championship, or not?
Rooting for the Heat…………………………………. 36%
Are not …………………………………………………… 28%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 35%
Q10 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of LeBron James?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 32%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 19%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 49%
Q11 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Dwayne Wade?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 37%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 9%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 54%
Q12 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Chris Bosh?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 25%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 9%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 66%
Q13 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Erik Spoelstra?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 20%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 7%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 74%
Q14 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Dwight Howard?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 23%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 14%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 63%
Q15 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 43%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 47%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 10%
Q16 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 10%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 16%
Moderate………………………………………………… 33%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 25%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 16%
Q17 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 49%
Man……………………………………………………….. 51%
Q18 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 41%
Republican……………………………………………… 40%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 19%
Q19 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If African-American, press 3. If other, press 4.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 12%
White …………………………………………………….. 70%
African-American …………………………………….. 12%
Other……………………………………………………… 5%
Q20 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 22%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 33%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 33%
