Polls

Klobuchar dominates in early re-election test

| Tom Jensen

Header-poll-results
Senate_Graph Raleigh, N.C. –
In the almost six months since PPP last took a look at Amy Klobuchar’s bid for a second term, the Minnesota Senator has become even more popular, now the fourth or fifth best liked senator of 80 on which PPP has polled in the last year and a half.  A whopping 61% of the state’s voters approve of her job performance, and only 28% disapprove, up slightly from a 59-29 spread in early December.  She has improved slightly with Democrats, Republicans, and independents alike.  28% of the opposing party and 62% of independents like the work she is doing.

Against five potential opponents, Klobuchar does not retain even half that Republican support, but still gets a healthy 8-12% of crossover votes, and keeps almost all the approving independents in her stable (49-57%) while locking up 94-97% of her own party, more than actually approve.  She leads former Governor Tim Pawlenty, 54-41; Rep. Michele Bachmann, 57-37; 2010 Attorney General nominee Chris Barden, 57-30; State Sen. Dave Thompson, 55-28; and the only announced candidate so far, former State Rep. Dan Severson, 56-28.  Klobuchar’s leads against Pawlenty and Bachmann are both three points larger than in December.  The others were not tested then.

Barden, Severson, and Thompson are almost complete unknowns, so they leave a lot of Republicans and independents on the fence.  But Pawlenty and Bachmann are household names, and the fact that Klobuchar earns 54-57% of the vote regardless of her opponent suggests her floor is probably not much lower than that.  Neither Pawlenty (40% favorable, 53% unfavorable) nor Bachmann (33-59) seem likely to challenge Klobuchar, with Pawlenty already in the presidential race and Bachmann likely to join him next Monday.  Yesterday’s release showed that most of the state’s voters want them running for neither President nor Senate.

“Amy Klobuchar looks like a shoo-in at this point,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling.

PPP surveyed 1,179 Minnesota voters from May 27th to 30th.  The margin of error for the survey is +/-2.9%.  This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization.  PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews.  PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.

Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Michele Bachmann?
Favorable ………….. 33%
Unfavorable……….. 59%
Not sure ……………. 8%

Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tim Pawlenty?
Favorable ………….. 40%
Unfavorable……….. 53%
Not sure ……………. 7%

Q3 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Amy
Klobuchar’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 61%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 28%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%

Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Chris Barden?
Favorable ………….. 4%
Unfavorable……….. 14%
Not sure ……………. 82%

Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Dan Severson?
Favorable ………….. 8%
Unfavorable……….. 13%
Not sure ……………. 79%

Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Dave Thompson?
Favorable ………….. 7%
Unfavorable……….. 11%
Not sure ……………. 82%

Q7 If the candidates for US Senate next year were
Democrat Amy Klobuchar and Republican
Michele Bachmann, who would you vote for?
Amy Klobuchar ……………………………………….. 57%
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 37%
Undecided………………………………………………. 5%

Q8 If the candidates for US Senate next year were
Democrat Amy Klobuchar and Republican
Chris Barden, who would you vote for?
Amy Klobuchar ……………………………………….. 57%
Chris Barden…………………………………………… 30%
Undecided………………………………………………. 13%

Q9 If the candidates for US Senate next year were
Democrat Amy Klobuchar and Republican Tim
Pawlenty, who would you vote for?
Amy Klobuchar ……………………………………….. 54%
Tim Pawlenty ………………………………………….. 41%
Undecided………………………………………………. 5%

Q10 If the candidates for US Senate next year were
Democrat Amy Klobuchar and Republican Dan
Severson, who would you vote for?
Amy Klobuchar ……………………………………….. 56%
Dan Severson …………………………………………. 28%
Undecided………………………………………………. 16%

Q11 If the candidates for US Senate next year were
Democrat Amy Klobuchar and Republican
Dave Thompson, who would you vote for?
Amy Klobuchar ……………………………………….. 55%
Dave Thompson ……………………………………… 28%
Undecided………………………………………………. 17%

Q12 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 41%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 52%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 7%

Q13 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 11%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 20%
Moderate………………………………………………… 29%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 25%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 15%

Q14 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 50%
Man……………………………………………………….. 50%

Q15 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 38%
Republican……………………………………………… 31%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 31%

Q16 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 92%
Other……………………………………………………… 8%

Q17 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 30%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 38%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%

Related Polls