Polls

Kitzhaber, Merkley hold double-digit leads

| Tom Jensen

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Raleigh, N.C. –
PPP’s newest Oregon poll finds incumbent Governor John Kitzhaber and incumbent Senator Jeff Merkley holding strong leads over their Republican challengers.

In the race for Governor, Democrat John Kitzhaber leads Republican Dennis Richardson by 13 points. Kitzhaber picks up 49% of the vote to 36% for Richardson. This comes despite a negative net approval rating for Kitzhaber, where 42% of voters approve of his job performance compared with 46% who disapprove. One reason for Kitzhaber’s large lead in the race is the lack of knowledge about Richardson. A whopping 62% of voters do not have an opinion on Richardson, and those that do are split evenly at 19% favorable and 19% unfavorable.

In the Senate race, Democrat Jeff Merkley has a similarly impressive lead of 14 points over Republican challenger Monica Wehby. Merkley picks up 50% of the vote to Wehby’s 36%, while Merkley’s job performance is at 41% approve to 34% disapprove. Part of Merkley’s lead is due to the negative press surrounding Wehby’s divorce and accusations of stalking by an ex-boyfriend. 59% of voters are aware of these recent news stories, leading voters to have a largely negative view of Wehby. Her favorability rating is at a net of negative 14, with 26% saying they have a favorable opinion and 40% unfavorable.

“Democrats in Oregon start out ahead by double digits in the major races for this fall,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “The Republican candidates aren’t that well known at this point, so they do have room to grow. But for now Merkley and Kitzhaber are strong favorites.”

Other recent news to come out of Oregon involves gay marriage, as a federal court overturned Oregon’s constitutional amendment banning same-sex marriages. Oregon voters stand pretty firmly in favor of this decision, as 49% agree with it compared to 40% who disagree. Furthermore, 54% of voters in the state feel that same-sex marriage should be allowed compared to 40% who do not.

PPP surveyed 956 registered voters from May 22th to 27th. The margin of error for the survey is +/- 3.2%. 80% of interviews for the poll were conducted over the phone with 20% interviewed over the internet to reach respondents who don’t have landline telephones.

Topline results are below.  Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 46%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 47%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%

Q2 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
John Kitzhaber’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 42%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 46%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%

Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Dennis Richardson?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 19%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 19%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 62%

Q4 The candidates for Governor are Democrat
John Kitzhaber and Republican Dennis
Richardson. If the election was today, who
would you vote for?
John Kitzhaber ………………………………………… 49%
Dennis Richardson…………………………………… 36%
Undecided………………………………………………. 15%

Q5 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Jeff
Merkley’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 41%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 34%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 25%

Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Monica Wehby?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 26%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 34%

Q7 The candidates for Senate are Democrat Jeff
Merkley and Republican Monica Wehby. If the
election was today, who would you vote for?
Jeff Merkley ……………………………………………. 50%
Monica Wehby ………………………………………… 36%
Undecided………………………………………………. 15%

Q8 Do you approve or disapprove of the job
Attorney General Ellen Rosenblum is doing?
Approve …………………………………………………. 29%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 22%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 49%

Q9 Do you agree or disagree with the court ruling
regarding gay marriage in Oregon this week?
Agree …………………………………………………….. 49%
Disagree ………………………………………………… 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%

Q10 Do you think same-sex marriage should be
allowed in Oregon, or not?
Think it should be…………………………………….. 54%
Think it should not be……………………………….. 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%

Q11 Has the legalization of gay marriage in Oregon
had a positive or negative impact on your life,
or has it not had any impact at all?
Positive impact………………………………………… 20%
Negative impact ………………………………………. 24%
No impact at all ……………………………………….. 56%

Q12 Are you aware of recent news stories about
Monica Wehby’s divorce and accusations of
stalking by an ex-boyfriend?
Aware…………………………………………………….. 59%
Not aware ………………………………………………. 41%

Q13 In the last presidential election, did you vote for
Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 52%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 41%
Someone else / Don’t remember ……………….. 7%

Q14 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 16%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 24%
Moderate………………………………………………… 26%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 21%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 14%

Q15 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%

Q16 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 45%
Republican……………………………………………… 31%
Independent / Other…………………………………. 24%

Q17 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 91%
Other……………………………………………………… 9%

Q18 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 27%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 37%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 24%

Q19 Mode
Phone ……………………………………………………. 80%
Internet ………………………………………………….. 20%

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