Raleigh, N.C. – For the first time since March, Republican Mark Kirk has a small lead over Democrat Alexi Giannoulias to succeed Roland Burris, appointed by former Governor Rod Blagojevich to temporarily fill President Obama’s vacated Senate seat. Kirk has 40% to Giannoulias’ 36%, with Green Party candidate LeAlan Jones’ share continuing to slowly decline, now at 8%, and Libertarian Mike Labno measured for the first time at 3%. In mid-August, Giannoulias led with 37% to Kirk’s 35% and Jones’ 9%.
The difference is, as many places, voter enthusiasm on the GOP side. Kirk pulls 79% of his own party, up from 74% last time, while Giannoulias earns only 68% of Democrats, down from 72%. That is because Kirk now gets 9% of Democrats to Giannoulias’ 2% of Republicans, when in August, the Democrat got 6% crossover support to Kirk’s 5%. With the entrance of Labno at 5% of unaffiliated and third-party voters, Kirk’s lead among them, while still healthy at 41-27-13 over Giannoulias and Jones, is slightly down from 36-20-15 in the previous survey.
This party unity gap and resulting tight race with two third-party candidates splitting 11% of the vote reflect the tepid feelings voters have for their major-party choices in this election. Only 39% say they are excited about who they themselves are voting for in the Senate race, while 45% wish someone better were running. At 38-44, the plurality Democrats reflect the overall voter sentiment, but Republicans are flipped, at 45-39. Independents are by far the least satisfied with their options, at 32-54.
Kirk’s improvement in the horse race has come despite voters slightly souring on him personally in the last month. He and Giannoulias are now equally disliked, with respective 33-47 and 33-48 favorability ratings. Voters have split slightly in favor of the Democrat, 7-6, since August, but against the Republican, 7-13.
“This election is in some ways a referendum on President Obama, and with some seats moving back toward the Democrats of late, and others suddenly moving toward the Republicans, this race could end up deciding control of the Senate,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling.
PPP surveyed 470 likely Illinois voters from September 23rd to 26th. The survey’s margin of error is +/-4.5%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 The candidates for Senate are Democrat Alexi
Giannoulias, Republican Mark Kirk, Green
Party candidate LeAlan Jones, and Libertarian
Mike Labno. If the election was today, who
would you vote for?
Alexi Giannoulias …………………………………….. 36%
Mark Kirk………………………………………………… 40%
LeAlan Jones ………………………………………….. 8%
Mike Labno …………………………………………….. 3%
Undecided………………………………………………. 13%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Alexi Giannoulias?
Favorable ………….. 33%
Unfavorable……….. 48%
Not sure ……………. 20%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mark Kirk?
Favorable……………. 33%
Unfavorable………… 47%
Not sure……………… 20%
Q4 Are you excited about who you’re casting your
US Senate vote for or do you wish someone
better was running?
Excited about who
you’re voting for …… 39%
Wish someone
better was running .. 45%
Not sure ……………… 16%
Q5 Do you approve or disapprove of Barack
Obama’s job performance?
Approve…………….. 44%
Disapprove………… 49%
Not sure ……………. 7%
Q6 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator
Roland Burris’ job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 17%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 68%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q7 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Dick
Durbin’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 46%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%
Q8 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 39%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 54%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 7%
Q9 Would you describe yourself as a liberal,
moderate, or conservative?
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 23%
Moderate………………………………………………… 40%
Conservative…………………………………………… 37%
Q10 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 55%
Man……………………………………………………….. 45%
Q11 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 42%
Republican……………………………………………… 32%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 26%
Q12 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If African-American, press 3. If other, press 4.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 6%
White …………………………………………………….. 78%
African-American …………………………………….. 12%
Other……………………………………………………… 4%
Q13 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 8%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 27%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 43%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 22%
