Raleigh, N.C. – Three weeks ago, PPP found Republican Mark Kirk taking a lead over Democrat Alexi Giannoulias in the Illinois Senate race after the Democrat had led in previous polls between March and September. But now Kirk’s lead has been halved from 40-36 to 42-40. Libertarian Mike Labno holds steady at 3%. Green Party candidate LeAlan Jones is down from 8% to 4%, but his continued presence in the race is no doubt a slight harm to Giannoulias, as a two-way contest would be led by Kirk, but only 46-45.
In contrast to other states polled in the last week where Democrats are becoming more engaged, Democrats are actually losing ground. This poll reflects an electorate that voted for favorite son President Obama by only 9 points, versus September’s 15. He actually won the state by 25, showing a remarkable 16-point enthusiasm gap, second among the 32 states PPP has polled this year only to Obama’s native land, Hawaii. Yet Giannoulias is still gaining. If Democrats turned out at 2008 levels, he would have a 47-37 lead.
The biggest reason for Giannoulias’ small surge against the prevailing electoral winds is that while Kirk has also further consolidated his base, Giannoulias has brought undecided Democrats home, and Democrats still make up 10 points more of the voter pool than do Republicans. Giannoulias has also made marginal improvement with independents, who now comprise more of the electorate than before.
Unlike in Washington, where the Democrat Patty Murray narrowly leads but voters even more narrowly want Republicans to control the Senate, in Illinois, the topline on that question mirrors the two-way Giannoulias-Kirk race exactly. But neither candidate is taking advantage of the possible implications of this race on who wields the gavel next January. Giannoulias is losing 10% of his party to Kirk and 5% to Jones, but Democrats want to retain power by an 88-6 margin. Kirk is leading independents 48-39 in the two-way, but unaffiliateds want the GOP in charge, 51-32.
“Despite the huge enthusiasm gap, a Democrat should win statewide in Illinois by rallying his base, and that is the single thing Alexi Giannoulias has to do to prevail in two weeks,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling.
PPP surveyed 557 likely Illinois voters from October 14th to 16th. The survey’s margin of error is +/-4.2%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 The candidates for Senate are Democrat Alexi
Giannoulias, Republican Mark Kirk, Green
Party candidate LeAlan Jones, and Libertarian
Mike Labno. If the election was today, who
would you vote for?
Alexi Giannoulias …………………………………….. 40%
Mark Kirk………………………………………………… 42%
LeAlan Jones ………………………………………….. 4%
Mike Labno …………………………………………….. 3%
Undecided………………………………………………. 10%
Q2 If the only choices for US Senate were
Democrat Alexi Giannoulias and Republican
Mark Kirk, who would you vote for?
Alexi Giannoulias …………………………………….. 45%
Mark Kirk………………………………………………… 46%
Undecided………………………………………………. 9%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Alexi Giannoulias?
Favorable ………….. 35%
Unfavorable……….. 47%
Not sure ……………. 18%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mark Kirk?
Favorable……………. 35%
Unfavorable ………… 46%
Not sure ……………… 19%
Q5 Would you rather Democrats or Republicans
held the majority in the next US Senate?
Democrats ………….. 45%
Republicans ………… 46%
Not sure ……………… 9%
Q6 Do you approve or disapprove of Barack
Obama’s job performance?
Approve…………….. 45%
Disapprove………… 51%
Not sure ……………. 4%
Q7 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator
Roland Burris’ job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 19%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 58%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 22%
Q8 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Dick
Durbin’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 47%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 45%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%
Q9 Since Barack Obama became President do
you think things in America have gotten better,
worse, or stayed about the same?
Better …………………. 33%
Worse ………………… 49%
Stayed about the
same…………………..18%
Q10 Are you more or less likely to vote for a
candidate endorsed by President Obama, or
does it not make a difference either way?
More likely…………… 25%
Less likely …………… 41%
Doesn’t make a
difference ……………. 34%
Q11 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 42%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 51%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 7%
Q12 Would you describe yourself as a liberal,
moderate, or conservative?
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 22%
Moderate………………………………………………… 44%
Conservative…………………………………………… 34%
Q13 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 51%
Man……………………………………………………….. 49%
Q14 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 40%
Republican……………………………………………… 30%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 30%
Q15 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If African-American, press 3. If other, press 4.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 8%
White …………………………………………………….. 78%
African-American …………………………………….. 11%
Other……………………………………………………… 3%
Q16 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 9%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 31%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 36%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 24%
