Raleigh, N.C. – Olympia Snowe’s decision to retire rather than seek another term in the Senate jolted the political world last week and gave Democrats a huge opportunity to pick up a seat and possibly even retain control of the Senate. In PPP’s first look at the now open seat, Rep. Chellie Pingree looks to be an early favorite, both in the potential Democratic primary and in the general election, should she jump into the race. But popular former independent Gov. Angus King would narrowly lead a three-way contest and potentially complicate Democrats’ plans.
Pingree tops former Gov. John Baldacci and former Secretary of State Matt Dunlap in a three-way primary, 52-28-11. Baldacci leads the six GOP hopefuls tested by an average of about eight points, but Pingree leads the same candidates by an average of about 16 points. That is because Pingree is better liked personally. 47% see her favorably and 41% unfavorably, 21 points better on the margin than Baldacci’s 37-52.
Pingree would still easily win, 49-33-9, over Charlie Summers and independent former Tea Party Republican Andrew Ian Dodge. But King leads 36-31-28 over Pingree and Summers because he pulls 35% of Democrats and 53% of independents but only 25% of Republicans. Against just Summers, Pingree leads 53-37, locking up 85% of Democrats, 51% of independents, and 12% of Republicans, but that slips to only 56%, 25%, and 5% with King in the mix. King is by far the most popular of the 11 candidates tested, with a 62-24 favorability margin, but his challenge will be keeping that Democratic support. If he were to win, 51% of his supporters would want him to caucus with the Democrats and only 25% with the Republicans. That includes a 40-27 margin with his independent supporters and 79-6 with Democrats. He may have to pledge to align himself with Harry Reid and company if he wants to hold onto his slim advantage.
“Angus King and Chellie Pingree look like the early favorites in Maine,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “King will have a hard time holding onto his early Democratic support without a pledge to caucus with the party if he’s elected to the Senate.”
PPP surveyed 1,256 Maine voters, including 550 usual Democratic primary voters and 369 usual Republican primary voters, from March 2nd to 4th. The margin of error is +/-2.8% for the entire survey, +/-4.2% for the Democratic sample, and +/-5.1% for the Republican sample. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of John Baldacci?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 37%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 52%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Bennett?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 9%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 24%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 67%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Peter Cianchette?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 22%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 27%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 51%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Eliot Cutler?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 49%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 27%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 24%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Scott D’Amboise?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 7%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 27%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 65%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Andrew Ian Dodge?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 4%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 23%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 73%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Angus King?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 62%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 24%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Chellie Pingree?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 47%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q9 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Bruce Poliquin?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 14%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 46%
Q10 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Bill Schneider?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 6%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 21%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 73%
Q11 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Charlie Summers?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 22%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 32%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 46%
Q12 If the candidates for US Senate this fall were
Republican Rick Bennett and Democrat John
Baldacci, who would you vote for?
Rick Bennett …………………………………………… 41%
John Baldacci …………………………………………. 43%
Undecided………………………………………………. 16%
Q13 If the candidates for US Senate this fall were
Republican Rick Bennett and Democrat Chellie
Pingree, who would you vote for?
Rick Bennett …………………………………………… 39%
Chellie Pingree ……………………………………….. 52%
Undecided………………………………………………. 9%
Q14 If the candidates for US Senate this fall were
Republican Peter Cianchette and Democrat
John Baldacci, who would you vote for?
Peter Cianchette ……………………………………… 43%
John Baldacci …………………………………………. 44%
Undecided………………………………………………. 13%
Q15 If the candidates for US Senate this fall were
Republican Peter Cianchette and Democrat
Chellie Pingree, who would you vote for?
Peter Cianchette ……………………………………… 39%
Chellie Pingree ……………………………………….. 51%
Undecided………………………………………………. 9%
Q16 If the candidates for US Senate this fall were
Republican Scott D’Amboise and Democrat
John Baldacci, who would you vote for?
Scott D’Amboise ……………………………………… 36%
John Baldacci …………………………………………. 48%
Undecided………………………………………………. 16%
Q17 If the candidates for US Senate this fall were
Republican Scott D’Amboise and Democrat
Chellie Pingree, who would you vote for?
Scott D’Amboise ……………………………………… 36%
Chellie Pingree ……………………………………….. 53%
Undecided………………………………………………. 12%
Q18 If the candidates for US Senate this fall were
Republican Bruce Poliquin and Democrat John
Baldacci, who would you vote for?
Bruce Poliquin…………………………………………. 35%
John Baldacci …………………………………………. 50%
Undecided………………………………………………. 16%
Q19 If the candidates for US Senate this fall were
Republican Bruce Poliquin and Democrat
Chellie Pingree, who would you vote for?
Bruce Poliquin…………………………………………. 33%
Chellie Pingree ……………………………………….. 54%
Undecided………………………………………………. 12%
Q20 If the candidates for US Senate this fall were
Republican Bill Schneider and Democrat John
Baldacci, who would you vote for?
Bill Schneider………………………………………….. 36%
John Baldacci …………………………………………. 47%
Undecided………………………………………………. 17%
Q21 If the candidates for US Senate this fall were
Republican Bill Schneider and Democrat
Chellie Pingree, who would you vote for?
Bill Schneider………………………………………….. 35%
Chellie Pingree ……………………………………….. 53%
Undecided………………………………………………. 12%
Q22 If the candidates for US Senate this fall were
Republican Charlie Summers and Democrat
John Baldacci, who would you vote for?
Charlie Summers …………………………………….. 39%
John Baldacci …………………………………………. 48%
Undecided………………………………………………. 13%
Q23 If the candidates for US Senate this fall were
Republican Charlie Summers and Democrat
Chellie Pingree, who would you vote for?
Charlie Summers …………………………………….. 37%
Chellie Pingree ……………………………………….. 53%
Undecided………………………………………………. 10%
Q24 If the candidates for US Senate this fall were
Republican Charlie Summers, Democrat
Chellie Pingree, and independent Eliot Cutler,
who would you vote for?
Charlie Summers …………………………………….. 30%
Chellie Pingree ……………………………………….. 38%
Eliot Cutler ……………………………………………… 28%
Undecided………………………………………………. 4%
Q25 (Among Cutler voters:) If Eliot Cutler was
elected to the US Senate, would you want him
to caucus with the Democrats or the
Republicans?
Democrats ……………………………………………… 45%
Republicans ……………………………………………. 24%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 31%
Q26 If the candidates for US Senate this fall were
Republican Charlie Summers, Democrat
Chellie Pingree, and independent Andrew Ian
Dodge, who would you vote for?
Charlie Summers …………………………………….. 33%
Chellie Pingree ……………………………………….. 49%
Andrew Ian Dodge …………………………………… 9%
Undecided………………………………………………. 8%
Q27 (Among Dodge voters:) If Andrew Ian Dodge
was elected to the US Senate, would you want
him to caucus with the Democrats or the
Republicans?
Democrats ……………………………………………… 23%
Republicans ……………………………………………. 29%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 48%
Q28 If the candidates for US Senate this fall were
Republican Charlie Summers, Democrat
Chellie Pingree, and independent Angus King,
who would you vote for?
Charlie Summers …………………………………….. 28%
Chellie Pingree ……………………………………….. 31%
Angus King …………………………………………….. 36%
Undecided………………………………………………. 5%
Q29 (Among King voters:) If Angus King was
elected to the US Senate, would you want him
to caucus with the Democrats or the
Republicans?
Democrats ……………………………………………… 51%
Republicans ……………………………………………. 25%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 23%
Q30 Given the choices of John Baldacci, Matt
Dunlap, and Chellie Pingree, who would you
most like to see as the Democratic nominee for
Senate? (Asked of 550 Democratic primary
voters)
John Baldacci …………………………………………. 28%
Matt Dunlap ……………………………………………. 11%
Chellie Pingree ……………………………………….. 52%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
Q31 Given the choices of Rick Bennett, Peter
Cianchette, Scott D’Amboise, Les Otten, Deb
Plowman, Bruce Poliquin, Bill Schneider, and
Charlie Summers, who would you most like to
see as the Republican candidate for Senate?
(Asked of 369 Republican primary voters)
Rick Bennett …………………………………………… 9%
Peter Cianchette ……………………………………… 21%
Scott D’Amboise ……………………………………… 10%
Les Otten ……………………………………………….. 7%
Deb Plowman …………………………………………. 4%
Bruce Poliquin…………………………………………. 8%
Bill Schneider………………………………………….. 1%
Charlie Summers …………………………………….. 18%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 23%
Q32 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 37%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 57%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 7%
Q33 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 14%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 21%
Moderate………………………………………………… 31%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 21%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 14%
Q34 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 50%
Man……………………………………………………….. 50%
Q35 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 43%
Republican……………………………………………… 34%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 23%
Q36 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 95%
Other……………………………………………………… 5%
Q37 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 24%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 44%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%
