Polls

King leads by only 8 points in Maine Senate race

| Tom Jensen


Header-poll-results
Raleigh, N.C. –
PPP’s newest poll
on the Maine Senate race finds it much closer than expected, with independent
Angus King leading with 43% to 35% for Republican Charlie Summers, and 14% for
Democrat Cynthia Dill.

King’s popularity is not what it was at the beginning of the campaign. 52%
of voters have a favorable opinion of him to 35% with an unfavorable one. That
+17 spread is down a net 21 points from March when he was at +38 with 62% of
voters rating him positively and 24% holding a negative opinion. The drop in
King’s popularity has been across the board, but it’s particularly acute with
Republicans. He’s gone from 43/38 with them to now 22/65. His declines with
independents (from 69/20 to 57/30) and Democrats (from 74/14 to 69/19) have
been more modest.

It’s reaching the point where King may need to more explicitly say he’s
going to organize as a Democrat if he wants to win this race. King is winning
only 13% of the Republican vote at this point, but he’s losing 26% of the
Democratic vote to Dill.  Among those already voting for King 64% want him
to caucus with the Democrats if he’s elected to only 9% who want him to side
with the Republicans and 23% who are undecided. So he has more to gain by
bringing Democrats voting for Dill into the fold than he does to lose by
antagonizing his small number of Republican leaning supporters.

“The Maine Senate race is closer now than anyone really expected it to be,”
said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Angus King is losing
more Democrats than he is picking up Republicans and although he remains the
favorite, a victory for him is not as inevitable as it used to be.”

There’s nothing too interesting in the Presidential contest in Maine. Barack
Obama leads Mitt Romney 55-39, a result pretty much in line with his 17 point
victory there in 2008. Obama has solid approval numbers with 54% of voters
giving him good marks to 42% who disapprove. Romney is quite unpopular with
only 37% of voters rating him favorably to 57% with an unfavorable opinion.
He’s not getting any New England home region advantage in Maine.

PPP surveyed 804 likely Maine voters on
September 17th and 18th. The margin of error for the overall survey
is +/-3.5%.  This poll was not paid for
or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are
conducted through automated telephone interviews.

Topline results are below.  Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 54%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 4%

Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 37%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 57%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%

Q3 The candidates for President are Democrat
Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney. If
the election was today, who would you vote
for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 55%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 39%
Undecided………………………………………………. 7%

Q4 Do you trust Barack Obama or Mitt Romney
more on the issue of the economy?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 54%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 5%

Q5 Do you trust Barack Obama or Mitt Romney
more on the issue of foreign policy?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 55%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 39%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%

Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Cynthia Dill?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 24%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 39%

Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Angus King?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 52%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 35%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%

Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Charlie Summers?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 36%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 24%

Q9 The candidates for US Senate are Democrat
Cynthia Dill, independent Angus King, and
Republican Charlie Summers. If the election
was today, who would you vote for?
Cynthia Dill……………………………………………… 14%
Angus King …………………………………………….. 43%
Charlie Summers …………………………………….. 35%
Undecided………………………………………………. 8%

Q10 If Angus King is elected to the US Senate,
would you like him to caucus with the
Democrats or Republicans, or are you not
sure?
Democrats ……………………………………………… 43%
Republicans ……………………………………………. 30%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 28%

Q11 Are you very excited, somewhat excited, or not
at all excited about voting in the 2012
elections?
Very excited ……………………………………………. 49%
Somewhat excited …………………………………… 29%
Not at all excited ……………………………………… 22%

Q12 Do you approve or disapprove of how Mitt
Romney reacted to the situation in Libya this
week?
Approve …………………………………………………. 34%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 51%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%

Q13 Do you think Mitt Romney should release his
tax returns for the last 12 years, or not?
He should……………………………………………….. 55%
He should not………………………………………….. 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%

Q14 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 9%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 24%
Moderate………………………………………………… 32%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 23%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 12%

Q15 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 51%
Man……………………………………………………….. 49%

Q16 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 42%
Republican……………………………………………… 29%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 29%

Q17 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 96%
Other……………………………………………………… 4%

Q18 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 33%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 46%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 21%

Related Polls