Raleigh, N.C. – There has been basically no change in how Ohioans feel about their governor since PPP last polled the state in August. John Kasich is still the least popular governor in the country, with only 37% approving and 54% disapproving of his job performance. That is bad news heading into this fall’s election, as one of his signature accomplishments, Senate Bill 5, is on the ballot, and would be rejected handily if voters were at the polls today. It could also portend bad results for next year’s election. President Obama is pretty unpopular in Ohio, but Kasich even more so, and his crusading against labor could galvanize Obama’s troops and give him an antagonist with independents.
If Kasich himself were up for a vote instead of his legislation, former Gov. Ted Strickland would rout Kasich by a 54-40 margin. SB5 is headed for repeal by an even larger 56-36 margin, up from 50-39 in August. Most of the movement has come from Democrats, 80% of whom are now against it, with only 13% planning to approve SB5. That is up 19 points on the margin from 69-21 only two months ago. With 30% of Republicans in this blue-collar, Rust-Belt state against SB5, and Democrats making up a 47% plurality of voters and his own party only 37%, Kasich cannot rely on turnout alone to prevail. He has to get more of the GOP in line or break the 46-46 tie with independents.
A plurality of Ohioans do not like the new congressional district map, and they want the chance to vote on it. 40% oppose the new lines, with only 26% supporting them. The map, drawn by the Republican legislature after the state lost two House seats in the census, harms Democrats more, and therefore they oppose it most (15-56). Republicans are somewhat in favor (39-17), and independents also pretty opposed (27-47). 36% of all voters think there should be a referendum on the map, while 28% think there should not be. Again, Democrats are most in line with this sentiment (43-22), but Republicans split only slightly against a vote (25-34), with independents somewhat for one (38-31).
PPP surveyed 581 Ohio voters from October 13th to 16th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-4.1%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor John
Kasich’s job performance?
Approve……………… 37%
Disapprove…………. 54%
Not sure …………….. 10%
Q2 If you could do last fall’s election for Governor
over again, would you vote for Democrat Ted
Strickland or Republican John Kasich?
Ted Strickland …………………………………………… 54%
John Kasich ……………………………………………… 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………… 6%
Q3 This fall, Ohio will have a referendum on
whether to approve or reject Senate Bill 5, which
was passed earlier this year and limits collective
bargaining rights for public employees. If the
election was today, would you vote to approve
or reject Senate Bill 5?
Approve SB5…………………………………………….. 36%
Reject………………………………………………………. 56%
Not sure …………………………………………………… 8%
Q4 Issue 3 would preserve the freedom of Ohioans
to choose their health care and health care
coverage. If the election was today, would you
vote for or against this amendment?
For ………………………………………………………….. 55%
Against…………………………………………………….. 24%
Not sure …………………………………………………… 21%
Q5 Do you support or oppose the proposed new
Congressional redistricting map for Ohio?
Support ……………………………………………………. 26%
Oppose ……………………………………………………. 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………… 34%
Q6 Do you think there should or should not be a
statewide referendum on the proposed
redistricting maps?
There should be………………………………………… 36%
There should not be…………………………………… 28%
Not sure …………………………………………………… 36%
Q7 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………….. 44%
Barack Obama………………………………………….. 48%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………… 8%
Q8 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………….. 10%
Somewhat liberal ………………………………………. 21%
Moderate………………………………………………….. 30%
Somewhat conservative……………………………… 19%
Very conservative ……………………………………… 19%
Q9 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ……………………………………………………. 51%
Man…………………………………………………………. 49%
Q10 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat …………………………………………………. 47%
Republican……………………………………………….. 37%
Independent/Other …………………………………….. 16%
Q11 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White……………………………………………………….. 83%
African-American ………………………………………. 13%
Other……………………………………………………….. 4%
Q12 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are older
than 65, press 4.
18 to 29……………………………………………………. 14%
30 to 45……………………………………………………. 26%
46 to 65……………………………………………………. 40%
Older than 65 ……………………………………………. 20%
