Raleigh, N.C. – Scott Walker’s actions in Wisconsin have elicited more publicity than John Kasich’s in Ohio, but PPP’s latest survey of the Buckeye State shows that Governor Kasich is the one in greater trouble with voters. He beat Ted Strickland by two points last fall, but if voters could do it over, they would have Strickland back in a heartbeat.
Strickland went out of office with a -5 net job approval margin, and Walker had a -6 in PPP’s Wisconsin poll a few weeks ago, but Kasich is now three or four times worse off, with only 35% approvaing and 54% disapproving of his performance so far. That puts him in the company of a lot of the governors who retired or were defeated for re-election last fall.
Along those lines, Strickland would win a re-do election right now by 15 points, 55-40. The poll’s respondents report voting for Strickland over Kasich by three points and Barack Obama over John McCain also by three (Obama won the state by four), reflecting a return to an electorate more like 2008’s than 2010’s heavy Republican turnout. 13% of Kasich’s voters would cast their ballot for Strickland today instead, and those who did not vote favor Strickland by a whopping 57-13. Independents heavily favored Kasich in November, but they now just as strongly back Strickland, 56-36.
If the Republicans’ Senate Bill 5 becomes law and is the subject of a referendum this fall, 54% say they would vote to repeal SB5, while only 31% would vote to keep it intact.
Kasich is clearly on the wrong side of public opinion. 51% generally have a favorable impression of labor unions, and 37% a negative view. 57% of Ohio voters side with the unions over Kasich, who is backed by only 36%. 65% think government workers should have at least the same amount of rights they have now, including 18% who think they should have more rights.
“Voters in Ohio are feeling significant buyers remorse about the November election results already,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Of course the reality is if Democrats had turned out Kasich never would have been elected. They voters who stayed home have mostly themselves to blame.”
PPP surveyed 559 Ohio voters from March 10th to 13th. The survey’s margin of error is +/-4.1%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
John Kasich’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 35%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 54%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%
Q2 Do you generally have a favorable or
unfavorable opinion of the labor unions in
Ohio?
Favorable ………….. 51%
Unfavorable……….. 37%
Not sure ……………. 12%
Q3 In the current conflict between Governor
Kasich and public employee unions in Ohio, do
you side more with Governor Kasich or the
unions?
Governor Kasich … 36%
The unions ………… 57%
Not sure ……………. 7%
Q4 Do you think public employees in Ohio should
or should not have a right to collective
bargaining for wages, benefits, and working
environment rules?
Should have a right to collective bargaining ………….63%
Should not…………. 29%
Not sure ……………. 8%
Q5 Do you think public employees in Ohio should
or should not have the right to strike?
Should have the right to strike ………52%
Should not…………. 42%
Not sure ……………. 6%
Q6 Do you think that public employees in Ohio
should have more rights, fewer rights, or about
the same amount of rights they have now?
More rights ………… 18%
Fewer rights ………. 32%
About the same amount of rights ….47%
Not sure ……………. 4%
Q7 If Senate Bill 5, which would limit collective
bargaining rights for public employees, passes
the legislature and is signed by the Governor
there may be a statewide vote this fall on
repealing the bill. Would you vote to repeal
Senate Bill 5 or would you vote to let the law
stand, or are you not sure?
Would vote to repeal SB 5 ……….. 54%
Would vote to let the law stand………31%
Not sure ……………. 15%
Q8 If you could do last fall’s election for Governor
over again, would you vote for Democrat Ted
Strickland or Republican John Kasich?
Ted Strickland ……. 55%
John Kasich ………. 40%
Not sure ……………. 5%
Q9 In the election for Governor last year did you
vote for Democrat Ted Strickland or Republican
John Kasich, or did you not vote in the
election?
Ted Strickland …………………………………………. 49%
John Kasich ……………………………………………. 46%
Didn’t vote/Don’t remember ………………………. 5%
Q10 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 46%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 49%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 6%
Q11 Are you or is anyone in your household a
member of a labor union?
Yes………………………………………………………… 34%
No …………………………………………………………. 66%
Q12 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 7%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 19%
Moderate………………………………………………… 29%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 28%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 15%
Q13 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 55%
Man……………………………………………………….. 45%
Q14 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 43%
Republican……………………………………………… 35%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 21%
Q15 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 84%
African-American …………………………………….. 12%
Other……………………………………………………… 4%
Q16 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 7%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 25%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 47%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 21%
