Raleigh, N.C. – Like his counterpart in Wisconsin, Ohio’s Gov. John Kasich has become only more unpopular over the last few months, as the opposition to his limitations on collective bargaining has only intensified. Already at 35-54 approval-disapproval in March, Kasich has slipped a bit to 33-56, tying him with Florida’s Rick Scott for the most reviled governor in the country. Unlike Scott Walker, Kasich’s agenda has not at all rallied his base. He has plummeted with Republicans, from an already somewhat weak 71-18 approval margin two months ago to an abysmal 58-28 now.
Accordingly, in a hypothetical do-over of last fall’s election, Kasich’s deficit to Ted Strickland, the man he ousted from office by two points, has only grown. Strickland would rout Kasich, 59-34, up from an already shocking 55-40 when PPP first asked the question in March. Kasich’s fall has again come entirely with Republicans, who still supported him in the previous poll, 81-16, but now stand by him only 67-26. Basically, he loses all the Republicans who disapprove of his performance in office, and only half of the Democrats who approve would actually vote for him. According to exit polls, Kasich only lost 11% of the GOP vote last fall, and his 16-point deficit with independents now is the reverse of his victory margin with them.
The bad news continues for Kasich, as 55% of voters want to repeal Senate Bill 5, which curtailed public employees’ collective bargaining rights. Only 35% would vote to let the law stand. Even 27% of Republicans would give the law a thumb’s down. 45% of all voters, including 24% of Republicans, would go further and pass an amendment to the state constitution enshrining collective bargaining rights.
“John Kasich might be Barack Obama’s new BFF,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Kasich’s unpopularity is really hurting the Republican brand in Ohio and may make it easier for Obama to win the state again even if he himself is not all that popular.”
PPP surveyed 565 Ohio voters from May 19th to 22nd. The margin of error for the survey is +/-4.1%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
John Kasich’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 33%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 56%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%
Q2 If you could do last fall’s election for Governor
over again, would you vote for Democrat Ted
Strickland or Republican John Kasich?
Ted Strickland ……. 59%
John Kasich ………. 34%
Not sure ……………. 7%
Q3 Ohio may have a referendum on repealing
Senate Bill 5, which was passed earlier this
year and limits collective bargaining rights for
public employees. Would you vote to repeal
Senate Bill 5, or would you vote to let the law
stand?
Would vote to
repeal SB5 …………55%
Would vote to let
the law stand………35%
Not sure ……………. 10%
Q4 Would you support or oppose an amendment
to the state constitution guaranteeing the right
to collective bargaining?
Support …………….. 45%
Oppose …………….. 32%
Not sure ……………. 23%
Q5 Do you approve or disapprove of the job House
Speaker John Boehner is doing?
Approve …………………………………………………. 37%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 26%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Dennis Kucinich?
Favorable ………….. 26%
Unfavorable……….. 39%
Not sure ……………. 34%
Q7 If there was an election for Congress today do
you think you would vote for the Democratic or
Republican candidate from your district, or are
you not sure?
Democratic
candidate ………….. 43%
Republican
candidate …………..34%
Not sure ……………. 22%
Q8 Do you think gay marriage should be legal or
illegal?
Legal……………………………………………………… 31%
Illegal …………………………………………………….. 53%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%
Q9 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jim Tressel?
Favorable ………….. 37%
Unfavorable……….. 19%
Not sure ……………. 43%
Q10 Do you consider yourself to be a Ohio State
football fan?
Yes…………………… 61%
No ……………………. 28%
Not sure ……………. 12%
Q11 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of LeBron James?
Favorable ………….. 23%
Unfavorable……….. 49%
Not sure ……………. 27%
Q12 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 45%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 46%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 9%
Q13 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 13%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 16%
Moderate………………………………………………… 33%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 25%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 13%
Q14 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 54%
Man……………………………………………………….. 46%
Q15 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 45%
Republican……………………………………………… 35%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 20%
