Raleigh, N.C. – In four polls PPP has conducted this year on the Virginia Senate race, Democratic former Gov. Tim Kaine has gained every time on George Allen, former holder of the state’s other Senate seat and another ex-governor. The two were tied in February, then Kaine inched ahead by two points in May, to three points in July, and he now leads by five (47-42).
Kaine has been at 46% or 47% in each poll, remarkably consistent. While Allen has slipped from 47% to 44% to 43% to 42%, those defectors are falling into the undecided camp, not Kaine’s, indicating this will likely remain a close race and that those waffling former Allen backers may end up back in his camp in the end.
The state is split almost evenly three ways between Democrats, Republicans, and independents, and the two-party vote has been polarized in each poll. But while Kaine trailed with independents in the first poll, he has led in the last three, making this a rare state where independents make a decisive difference.
Part of the reason for the state’s blue trending in the last decade is that it has seen an influx of settlers from other parts of the country, particularly in the D.C. suburbs. 34% of the state’s voters do not consider themselves Southern, and with those non-natives, Kaine has an enormous 61-29 lead over Allen. Allen is saved by posting a 47-41 edge with the two-thirds who do consider themselves part of the region. Both candidates grew up outside the state, but Allen has adopted the Southern heritage to fit in with the state’s largely white, rural Republican Party.
“After receiving strong reviews for his debate performance last week Tim Kaine has expanded his lead in the Virginia Senate race,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “This will be a close contest but Barack Obama’s holding up comparatively well in the state should work to Kaine’s advantage.”
PPP surveyed 600 Virginia voters from December 10th to 12th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-4.0%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of George Allen?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 38%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 39%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 23%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tim Kaine?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 40%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jamie Radtke?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 7%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 22%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 71%
Q4 If the candidates for US Senate in 2012 were
Democrat Tim Kaine and Republican George
Allen, who would you vote for?
Tim Kaine……………………………………………….. 47%
George Allen…………………………………………… 42%
Undecided………………………………………………. 11%
Q5 If the candidates for US Senate in 2012 were
Democrat Tim Kaine and Republican Jamie
Radtke, who would you vote for?
Tim Kaine……………………………………………….. 49%
Jamie Radtke………………………………………….. 33%
Undecided………………………………………………. 19%
Q6 Do you consider yourself to be a Southerner, or
not?
Consider yourself a
Southerner …………..66%
Do not ……………….. .34%
Q7 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 43%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 48%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 9%
Q8 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 9%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 15%
Moderate………………………………………………… 34%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 24%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 18%
Q9 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 55%
Man……………………………………………………….. 45%
Q10 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 36%
Republican……………………………………………… 33%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 31%
Q11 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 73%
African-American …………………………………….. 19%
Other……………………………………………………… 8%
Q12 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 14%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 30%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 36%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%
