Raleigh, N.C. – In 2006 Jim Webb edged out George Allen in the closest senate race in the nation. History could repeat itself as former Governor Tim Kaine holds just a 46-43 edge over Allen, effectively unchanged from his 46-44 lead in May. For more than half a year, the Virginia Senate race has been deadlocked, and with both candidates well known, it could stay that way through the election in 2012.
Both candidates have their parties united behind them with Kaine winning Democrats 87-7 and Allen taking Republicans 87-6. Kaine has the advantage with independents 44-33, giving him the nominal edge over Allen. As almost all partisans are decided, if Kaine can hold a small lead with independents through the election, he will be in good shape.
While the race could come down to the wire with Allen as the GOP nominee, if Jamie Radtke wins the nomination in an upset, Kaine would be favored 47-31. With Independents, Kaine beats Radtke more than two to one, taking 49% to Radtke’s 24%. Far more undecides are Republicans than Democrats, so the race could narrow in the event of a Radtke nomination.
Though both Kaine and Allen are widely known, neither is exactly beloved. Kaine garners only a tepid 42-40 favorability rating. However, this is significantly stronger than Allen’s 34-44 rating. Allen seems to have permanently damaged his image in the 2006 campaign, but not so much as to be uncompetitive statewide. On the other hand, Radtke is unknown to the commonwealth and unpopular with those who do know her. Only 5% see Radtke favorably compared to 16% who see her unfavorably.
“Even as Barack Obama’s numbers in the state have worsened over the last 3 months the state of the Senate race has remained the same,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “This is a contest that seems likely to stay tight all the way to election day regardless of changes in the political winds.”
PPP surveyed 500 Virginia voters from July 21th to 24th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-4.4%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of George Allen?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 34%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 44%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 22%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tim Kaine?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 42%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jamie Radtke?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 5%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 16%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 79%
Q4 If the candidates for US Senate in 2012 were
Democrat Tim Kaine and Republican George
Allen, who would you vote for?
Tim Kaine……………………………………………….. 46%
George Allen…………………………………………… 43%
Undecided………………………………………………. 11%
Q5 If the candidates for US Senate in 2012 were
Democrat Tim Kaine and Republican Jamie
Radtke, who would you vote for?
Tim Kaine……………………………………………….. 47%
Jamie Radtke………………………………………….. 31%
Undecided………………………………………………. 22%
Q6 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 47%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 47%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 6%
Q7 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 11%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 18%
Moderate………………………………………………… 30%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 21%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 20%
Q8 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%
Q9 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 35%
Republican……………………………………………… 36%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 30%
Q10 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 76%
African-American …………………………………….. 19%
Other……………………………………………………… 5%
Q11 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 22%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 44%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 22%
Q12
276………………………………………………………… 5%
434………………………………………………………… 9%
540………………………………………………………… 25%
703………………………………………………………… 21%
757………………………………………………………… 21%
804………………………………………………………… 18%