Raleigh, N.C. – Tim Kaine leads George Allen 46%-44% in the race to succeed Jim Webb in the U.S. Senate. Kaine’s lead has grown by one point since the last time PPP polled the race in April. At that time, Kaine led 46-45. Kaine leads Allen by 11 points among women, 49-38, while Allen leads among men 50-42. Both men take similar percentages of their respective party voters, with Democrats lining up behind Kaine 84-7 and Republicans supporting Allen 87-8. It is among Independent voters where Kaine finds his advantage, leading Allen among them by a 45-37 margin.
Kaine also benefits from a net positive favorability rating, with 43% of voters having a favorable opinion of him and 38% unfavorable, largely unchanged from a 42-37 rating he received in last April’s poll. Allen’s numbers aren’t quite as good, with 39% of voters holding a favorable opinion of him and 42% unfavorable – a change for the worse from April when voters were split 38-38.
“The Virginia Senate race still looks like a sheer toss up,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “But Tim Kaine has had a modest lead on our last couple polls now. Voters like him better than Allen and he may receive coattails from Barack Obama, who’s faring quite well in the state at this point.”
Looking ahead to 2013’s Gubernatorial race, most candidates are still mostly unknown to voters. Republican Lieutenant Governor Bill Bolling sees a 15% favorable and 16% unfavorable rating, with 69% not sure. Republican Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli is at 28-36 with 37% not sure; and Republican Tareq Salahi is viewed favorably by just 3% with 25% unfavorable and 73% not sure. On the Democratic side perennial heavyweight Mark Warner remains beloved by Virginians, with 50% approving of his job performance and 28% disapproving. Terry McAuliffe sees a 13% fav and 18% unfav rating, while former Congressman Tom Perriello is at 14% fav and 17% unfav. In head to head matchups, Warner bests all comers, leading Bill Bolling 49-35, leading Cuccinelli 51-37 and leading Salahi 54-24. Take Warner out of the equation and the picture gets murkier. McAuliffe beats Cuccinelli 41-37 and beats Salahi 38-24 but loses to Bill Bolling 36-33. Tom Periello loses to Cuccinelli 39-38 and loses to Bolling 38-32 but defeats Salahi 40-23.
PPP surveyed 647 Virginia voters from July 5th to 8th. The margin of error is +/-3.9%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of George Allen?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 39%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tim Kaine?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 43%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 38%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%
Q3 The candidates for Senate this fall are
Democrat Tim Kaine and Republican George
Allen. If the election was today, who would you
vote for?
Tim Kaine……………………………………………….. 46%
George Allen…………………………………………… 44%
Undecided………………………………………………. 11%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Bill Bolling?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 15%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 16%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 69%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ken Cuccinelli?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 28%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 36%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 37%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Terry McAuliffe?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 13%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 18%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 69%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tom Perriello?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 14%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 17%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 69%
Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tareq Salahi?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 3%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 25%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 73%
Q9 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Mark
Warner’s job performance?
Approve …………….. .50%
Disapprove…………. .28%
Not sure …………….. .22%
Q10 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Republican Bill Bolling and Democrat Terry
McAuliffe, who would you vote for?
Bill Bolling ………………………………………………. 36%
Terry McAuliffe………………………………………… 33%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 31%
Q11 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Republican Bill Bolling and Democrat Tom
Perriello, who would you vote for?
Bill Bolling ………………………………………………. 38%
Tom Perriello…………………………………………… 32%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 30%
Q12 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Republican Bill Bolling and Democrat Mark
Warner, who would you vote for?
Bill Bolling ………………………………………………. 35%
Mark Warner …………………………………………… 49%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%
Q13 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Republican Ken Cuccinelli and Democrat Terry
McAuliffe, who would you vote for?
Ken Cuccinelli …………………………………………. 37%
Terry McAuliffe………………………………………… 41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 22%
Q14 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Republican Ken Cuccinelli and Democrat Tom
Perriello, who would you vote for?
Ken Cuccinelli …………………………………………. 39%
Tom Perriello…………………………………………… 38%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 23%
Q15 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Republican Ken Cuccinelli and Democrat Mark
Warner, who would you vote for?
Ken Cuccinelli …………………………………………. 37%
Mark Warner …………………………………………… 51%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q16 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Republican Tareq Salahi and Democrat Terry
McAuliffe, who would you vote for?
Tareq Salahi……………………………………………. 24%
Terry McAuliffe………………………………………… 38%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 38%
Q17 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Republican Tareq Salahi and Democrat Tom
Perriello, who would you vote for?
Tareq Salahi……………………………………………. 23%
Tom Perriello…………………………………………… 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 38%
Q18 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Republican Tareq Salahi and Democrat Mark
Warner, who would you vote for?
Tareq Salahi……………………………………………. 24%
Mark Warner …………………………………………… 54%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 22%
Q19 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 44%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 48%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 8%
Q20 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 9%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 19%
Moderate………………………………………………… 29%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 26%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 17%
Q21 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 54%
Man……………………………………………………….. 46%
Q22 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 33%
Republican……………………………………………… 33%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 34%
Q23 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 73%
African-American …………………………………….. 18%
Other……………………………………………………… 9%
Q24 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 24%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 44%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%
