Raleigh, N.C. – The two candidates expected to face off for Jim Webb’s Senate seat, former Governor Tim Kaine and the seat’s previous occupant George Allen, remain deadlocked at this early stage of their likely general election battle next year. Either would be more strongly favored against alternative nominees from the other party.
Kaine just edges Allen, 46-44, after the two were tied at 47% in PPP’s previous poll of the race in February. Essentially the only difference is that independents have moved from 50-41 in Allen’s favor to 45-40 in Kaine’s. Neither candidate has fared well in public opinion in the last three months, Kaine falling from a 46-38 favorability margin to only 42-41, and Allen from 39-40 to 36-42.
Kaine would beat Allen’s main announced primary opponent, Tea Party activist Jamie Radtke, by a 49-33 margin, while Allen would oust Rep. Bobby Scott, who has yet to express serious interest in a challenge to Kaine, by a narrower 44-39. And in the unlikely event Scott and Radtke are nominated, Scott would prevail, 39-34.
Yesterday, PPP released numbers showing President Obama favored by at least eight points over any Republican in the state.
“It’s hard to imagine the Virginia Senate race ever being anything other than highly competitive,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “When you have two highly polarizing candidates that voters have known for years it’s unlikely either of them will break away from the pack. There’s going to be a low number of undecideds and it’s just going to come down to who does a better job of getting their people out and who can win over the very small number of swing voters there are.”
PPP surveyed 547 Virginia voters from May 5th to 8th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-4.2%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of George Allen?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 36%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 22%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tim Kaine?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 42%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jamie Radtke?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 4%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 23%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 73%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Bobby Scott?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 17%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 24%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 59%
Q5 If the candidates for US Senate in 2012 were
Democrat Tim Kaine and Republican George
Allen, who would you vote for?
Tim Kaine……………………………………………….. 46%
George Allen…………………………………………… 44%
Undecided………………………………………………. 10%
Q6 If the candidates for US Senate in 2012 were
Democrat Tim Kaine and Republican Jamie
Radtke, who would you vote for?
Tim Kaine……………………………………………….. 49%
Jamie Radtke………………………………………….. 33%
Undecided………………………………………………. 18%
Q7 If the candidates for US Senate in 2012 were
Democrat Bobby Scott and Republican George
Allen, who would you vote for?
Bobby Scott ……………………………………………. 39%
George Allen…………………………………………… 44%
Undecided………………………………………………. 17%
Q8 If the candidates for US Senate in 2012 were
Democrat Bobby Scott and Republican Jamie
Radtke, who would you vote for?
Bobby Scott ……………………………………………. 39%
Jamie Radtke………………………………………….. 34%
Undecided………………………………………………. 27%
Q9 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 44%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 50%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 6%
Q10 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 8%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 18%
Moderate………………………………………………… 31%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 22%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 21%
Q11 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 51%
Man……………………………………………………….. 49%
Q12 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a
Republican, press 2. If you are an independent
or identify with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 37%
Republican……………………………………………… 34%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 29%
Q13 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 76%
African-American …………………………………….. 19%
Other……………………………………………………… 5%
Q14 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 24%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 44%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%
