Raleigh, N.C. – Like the Senate race, the presidential contest in New Mexico has gotten closer since PPP last polled this nominal swing state in February, but only two of the potential Republican nominees make it a single-digit race—the frontrunner and a favorite son dark horse.
Although both he and the President have gotten less popular by nine points on the margin in the last four months, former Governor Gary Johnson has still benefited, closing what was a 51-36 deficit in his home state by 12 points, to only 46-43. But a Johnson nomination is a long shot, and President Obama is in safer territory otherwise. He leads Mitt Romney, 49-42, down nine points from 53-37. Against everyone else, the president would at least replicate his 15-point victory over John McCain in 2008. He leads Tim Pawlenty, 51-36; Michele Bachmann, 52-37; Herman Cain, 52-36; and Sarah Palin, 56-36 (down nine from 62-33).
While independents gave the President leads of 25-51 points in the previous survey, and voted for him by 15 over McCain (according to exit polls), he now leads by only 16-26 against the more prominent candidates and trails Johnson by nine with unaffiliated voters. The president has also slipped a little with his own party, which makes up more than half of voters. While he was pulling 73-86% of Democrats in February and losing only 12-19% of them to the Republicans, he now locks up only 70-80% of his partisans and erodes 13-21%. But there is more crossover support on both sides; both Obama and McCain won 91% of their respective parties, and the president has bumped up from a 10% to a 16% approval rating with Republicans since February, and jumped from 7-12% of their vote to 10-18%.
“New Mexico doesn’t appear likely to return to the Republican column next year,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “But if Mitt Romney wins the nomination it might at least be more competitive than it was in 2008.”
PPP surveyed 732 New Mexico voters from June 23th to 26th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-3.6%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 50%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 44%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Michele Bachmann?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 30%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 28%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Herman Cain?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 24%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 27%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 49%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sarah Palin?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 31%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 61%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tim Pawlenty?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 20%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 35%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 45%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 33%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 46%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 21%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Gary Johnson?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 43%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%
Q8 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Michele Bachmann, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 52%
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 37%
Undecided………………………………………………. 11%
Q9 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Herman Cain, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 52%
Herman Cain…………………………………………… 36%
Undecided………………………………………………. 13%
Q10 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Sarah Palin, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 56%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 36%
Undecided………………………………………………. 8%
Q11 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Tim
Pawlenty, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 51%
Tim Pawlenty ………………………………………….. 36%
Undecided………………………………………………. 13%
Q12 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 49%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 42%
Undecided………………………………………………. 10%
Q13 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Gary
Johnson, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 46%
Gary Johnson …………………………………………. 43%
Undecided………………………………………………. 11%
Q14 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 37%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 53%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 10%
Q15 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 13%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 20%
Moderate………………………………………………… 29%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 19%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 19%
Q16 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 54%
Man……………………………………………………….. 46%
Q17 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 51%
Republican……………………………………………… 32%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 17%
Q18 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If other, press 3.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 39%
White …………………………………………………….. 49%
Other……………………………………………………… 12%
Q19 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 15%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 22%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 41%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 22%
