Raleigh, N.C. – Florida is trying to move its primary up and increase its influence in the GOP presidential primary process, but right now, the state’s Republican voters are not too decisive about which candidate they favor—unless their former governor Jeb Bush changes his mind. In PPP’s usual eight-candidate field, 18% favor each Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, and Newt Gingrich, with Sarah Palin not far behind, at 15%, Michele Bachmann at 7%, Ron Paul and Tim Pawlenty at 6% apiece, and Haley Barbour at 3%.
In the event various candidates do not jump into the fray, the picture changes little. Without Huckabee, Gingrich jumps to 24%, Romney to 23%, Palin to 14%, and Paul to 9%. Everyone else runs in place. Without Palin, Huckabee leads at 24%, with Gingrich and Romney at 22% each, and Bachmann at 9%. With neither Palin nor Huckabee, Gingrich tops Romney, 30-28, with Bachmann at 11%, Pawlenty at 10%, and Paul at 9%.
Romney invariably leads with moderates and at least ties for the lead with the 38% who are “somewhat conservative,” but lags severely with the 40% plurality who label themselves “very conservative.” These voters favor either Huckabee or Gingrich.
If Bush were to make a bid, however, it would produce the only commanding lead for any candidate—30% over Gingrich, Huckabee, and Romney’s 14%, Palin’s 9%, Bachmann’s 5%, and Paul’s and Pawlenty’s 4%. If Rudy Giuliani were to make another bid and put down roots in Florida, he would essentially tie for the lead, with Romney, Huckabee, and Gingrich at 17%, Giuliani at 16%, Palin at 11%, Pawlenty and Bachmann at 6%, and Paul at 4%.
In the Senate race, voters want Connie Mack IV to be their nominee against Bill Nelson, but he announced while the poll was in the field that he would not be a candidate. Behind his 23%, it is essentially a test of name recognition, led by Mike Haridolpolos (12%), George LeMieux (10%), Joe Scarborough (7%), Adam Hasner (5%), Jennifer Carroll (4%), Jeff Miller (2%), and Jimmy Wales (1%), none of whom is known to more than a third of voters. The nomination is wide open, which explains the host of candidates who are taking serious looks at the race.
PPP surveyed 427 usual Florida Republican primary voters from March 24th to 27th. The survey’s margin of error is +/-4.7%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 58%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 26%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mike Huckabee?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 71%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 17%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sarah Palin?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 62%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 30%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 61%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 24%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jeb Bush?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 68%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 22%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rudy Giuliani?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 51%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 34%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mike Haridopolos?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 16%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 16%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 67%
Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Adam Hasner?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 5%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 10%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 84%
Q9 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of George LeMieux?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 15%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 11%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 74%
Q10 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Connie Mack IV?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 31%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 16%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 53%
Q11 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Joe Scarborough?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 14%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 16%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 70%
Q12 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jimmy Wales?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 3%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 8%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 89%
Q13 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Michele Bachmann?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 44%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 9%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 47%
Q14 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Haley Barbour?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 35%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 7%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 58%
Q15 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ron Paul?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 53%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 16%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 31%
Q16 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tim Pawlenty?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 40%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 8%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 52%
Q17 If the Republican candidates for President next
year were Michele Bachmann, Haley Barbour,
Newt Gingrich, Mike Huckabee, Sarah Palin,
Ron Paul, Tim Pawlenty, and Mitt Romney who
would you vote for?
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 7%
Haley Barbour…………………………………………. 3%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 18%
Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 18%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 15%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 6%
Tim Pawlenty ………………………………………….. 6%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 18%
Someone else/Undecided…………………………. 8%
Q18 Let’s say that Mike Huckabee didn’t run for
President next year and the candidates were
just Michele Bachmann, Haley Barbour, Newt
Gingrich, Sarah Palin, Ron Paul, Tim Pawlenty,
and Mitt Romney. Who would you vote for?
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 7%
Haley Barbour…………………………………………. 3%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 24%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 19%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 9%
Tim Pawlenty ………………………………………….. 6%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 23%
Someone else/Undecided…………………………. 9%
Q19 Now let’s say that Mike Huckabee did run for
President next year but that Sarah Palin did not
and the candidates were Michele Bachmann,
Haley Barbour, Newt Gingrich, Mike Huckabee,
Ron Paul, Tim Pawlenty, and Mitt Romney.
Who would you vote for?
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 9%
Haley Barbour…………………………………………. 2%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 22%
Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 24%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 6%
Tim Pawlenty ………………………………………….. 6%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 22%
Someone else/Undecided…………………………. 9%
Q20 Now let’s say that neither Mike Huckabee nor
Sarah Palin ran for President next year and the
candidates were Michele Bachmann, Haley
Barbour, Newt Gingrich, Ron Paul, Tim
Pawlenty, and Mitt Romney. Who would you
vote for?
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 11%
Haley Barbour…………………………………………. 2%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 30%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 9%
Tim Pawlenty ………………………………………….. 10%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 28%
Someone else/Undecided…………………………. 11%
Q21 What if Rudy Giuliani ran for President and the
candidates were Michele Bachmann, Newt
Gingrich, Rudy Giuliani, Mike Huckabee, Sarah
Palin, Ron Paul, Tim Pawlenty, and Mitt
Romney. Who would you vote for?
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 6%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 17%
Rudy Giuliani ………………………………………….. 16%
Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 17%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 11%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 4%
Tim Pawlenty ………………………………………….. 6%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 17%
Someone else/Undecided…………………………. 6%
Q22 Here’s one last scenario: what if Jeb Bush ran
for President and the candidates were Michele
Bachmann, Jeb Bush, Newt Gingrich, Mike
Huckabee, Sarah Palin, Ron Paul, Tim
Pawlenty, and Mitt Romney. Who would you
vote for?
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 5%
Jeb Bush………………………………………………… 30%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 14%
Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 14%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 9%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 4%
Tim Pawlenty ………………………………………….. 4%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 14%
Someone else/Undecided…………………………. 6%
Q23 Given the choices of Jennifer Carroll, Mike
Haridopolos, Adam Hasner, George LeMieux,
Connie Mack IV, Jeff Miller, Joe Scarborough,
and Jimmy Wales who would you most like to
see as the Republican candidate for Senate
next year?
Jennifer Carroll ……………………………………….. 4%
Mike Haridopolos …………………………………….. 12%
Adam Hasner………………………………………….. 5%
George LeMieux ……………………………………… 10%
Connie Mack IV ………………………………………. 23%
Jeff Miller ……………………………………………….. 2%
Joe Scarborough …………………………………….. 7%
Jimmy Wales ………………………………………….. 1%
Someone else/Undecided…………………………. 35%
Q24 If the choices were just Mike Haridopolos,
Adam Hasner, George LeMieux, and Connie
Mack IV who would you vote for?
Mike Haridopolos …………………………………….. 13%
Adam Hasner………………………………………….. 4%
George LeMieux ……………………………………… 14%
Connie Mack IV ………………………………………. 28%
Someone else/Undecided…………………………. 41%
Q25 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 1%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 3%
Moderate………………………………………………… 17%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 38%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 40%
Q26 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 48%
Man……………………………………………………….. 52%
