SUMMARY OF RESULTS
Raleigh, N.C. – Florida’s former governor Jeb Bush is by far the most popular Republican in a slate of candidates PPP tested against Senator Bill Nelson, who is perceived to be one of the most vulnerable Democrats up for election in 2012. Bush is also the only one to beat him or even come close. Against everyone else, Nelson has at least an eight-point lead, but Bush would top him by five if he chose to go back on his oft-stated noninterest in a return to elective politics.
Bush has a near majority, with 49% to Nelson’s 44%. After that, Congressman Connie Mack comes closest but still trails, 36-44. Outgoing appointed incumbent of the other Senate seat, George LeMieux, is down, 36-47. State Senate President Mike Haridopolos trails, 32-44. And State Rep. Adam Hasner lags, 30-46. Nelson has almost 3:1 margins with independents against Mack, Hasner, and Haridopolos, and more than 2:1 against LeMieux, but against Bush, his lead is an insignificant 43-39. Bush takes the overall lead because he holds more of the GOP base than Nelson does of Democrats, while Nelson bests all the other Republicans in that category, some by significant margins.
Voters are pretty split on Nelson’s job performance, with 36% approving, 33% disapproving, and 31% unsure, so he is ripe for a strong challenge. But Bush is the only other prospective candidate with positive reviews, holding a 51-40 favorability rating. Mack is next best, at 20-24, but 56% have no opinion. LeMieux never made much of an impression on voters. His rating is 16-27, with even more, 58%, having not heard of him than of Mack, who serves only one sliver of the state. Haridopolos gets the nod from a measly 4% of the state’s voters, the same as for Hasner. 26% are down on the former and 18% on the latter, so 70% are unaware of Haridopolos and 78% of Hasner. All of these candidates’ standings are largely a reflection of name recognition, so the four non-Bush aspirants have plenty of time to make up ground should they go forward with a race and take the nomination.
“Right now, it appears unlikely candidate Jeb Bush is the only Republican who could defeat Bill Nelson,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “But Nelson’s job performance reviews are not stellar, and Marco Rubio showed this year that a candidate can come out of nowhere to beat the odds.”
PPP surveyed 1,034 Florida voters from December 17th to 20th. The survey’s margin of error is +/-3.0%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
If you would like an interview regarding this release, please contact Dean Debnam at (888) 621-6988 or (919) 880-4888.
Quesitons about the poll? Contact Tom Jensen at (919) 774-6312
Florida Survey Results
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Bill Nelson’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 36%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 33%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 31%
Q2 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator George LeMieux’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 16%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 27%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 58%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinionof Jeb Bush?
Favorable ……………………………………………….. 51%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinionof Mike Haridopolos?
Favorable ……………………………………………….. 4%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 26%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 70%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinionof Adam Hasner?
Favorable ……………………………………………….. 4%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 18%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 78%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Connie Mack IV?
Favorable ……………………………………………….. 20%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 24%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 56%
Q7 If the candidates for US Senate in 2012 were Democrat Bill Nelson and Republican George LeMieux, who would you vote for?
Bill Nelson……………………………………………….47%
George LeMieux ……………………………………… 36%
Undecided………………………………………………. 17%
Q8 If the candidates for US Senate in 2012 were Democrat Bill Nelson and Republican Jeb Bush, who would you vote for?
Bill Nelson……………………………………………….44%
Jeb Bush………………………………………………… 49%
Undecided………………………………………………. 7%
Q9 If the candidates for US Senate in 2012 were Democrat Bill Nelson and Republican Mike Haridopolos, who would you vote for?
Bill Nelson……………………………………………….44%
Mike Haridopolos …………………………………….. 32%
Undecided………………………………………………. 24%
Q10 If the candidates for US Senate in 2012 were Democrat Bill Nelson and Republican Adam Hasner, who would you vote for?
Bill Nelson……………………………………………….46%
Adam Hasner…………………………………………..30%
Undecided………………………………………………. 25%
Q11 If the candidates for US Senate in 2012 were Democrat Bill Nelson and Republican Connie Mack IV, who would you vote for?
Bill Nelson……………………………………………….44%
Connie Mack IV ………………………………………. 36
Undecided………………………………………………. 20%
Q12 Would you describe yourself as a liberal, moderate, or conservative?
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 22%
Moderate………………………………………………… 43%
Conservative …………………………………………… 36%
Q13 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 50
Man……………………………………………………….. 50%
Q14 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican, press 2. If you are an independent or identify with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 42%
Republican ……………………………………………… 40%
Independent/Other …………………………………… 18%
Q15 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2. If African-American, press 3. If other, press 4.
Hispanic …………………………………………………. 13%
White …………………………………………………….. 72%
African-American…………………………………….. 9%
Other……………………………………………………… 6%
Q16 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to 45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 22%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 38%
Older than 65 ………………………………………….. 28%
Full results (including crossover tabs) and press release: PPP_Release_FL_1221925.pdf
