Raleigh, N.C. – Iowans have cut their governor a little more slack since PPP last polled the state three months ago. 41% approve and 44% disapprove of Terry Branstad’s performance, up from 39-47. But that makes him 29th out of 42 sitting governors on which PPP has polled, and voters still would only narrowly prefer him to the Democrat he ousted from office last fall, Chet Culver. In a hypothetical do-over, Branstad would prevail, 48-44, when he actually won by a 53-43 margin. The problem for Culver is that Branstad wins over twice as many Democrats (a huge 18%) as he won last fall. On top of that, even though the third of voters who say they are independents disapprove, 36-46, they prefer Branstad to Culver, 46-41. That is down, however, from the 51-41 margin reported by exit polls.
As the only Midwestern state where it is legal, Iowa is becoming increasingly favorable to same-sex marriage. 46% think it should be legal, and 45% illegal. But when civil unions are included as an alternative, giving gay couples the same rights as marriage, 40% still prefer full marriage equality, 30% favor civil unions, and only 29% think there should be no recognition of these relationships at all. When PPP asked the same question in April, the breakdown was 35-29-33. Democrats, Republicans, and independents are all more in favor of both marriage and civil unions than before, but particularly Republicans, 14% of whom favor marriage and 36% civil unions now, versus 10-28 four months ago. For Democrats, it is 63-23 versus 57-25, and for independents, 40-31 versus 35-36.
With Iowa losing a congressional seat after the census, the new map has double-bunked two incumbent Republicans, and should favor Democrats. On top of that, voters prefer Democrats for Congress by a 44-40 margin over GOP candidates.
52% of Iowans see their senior senator Chuck Grassley favorably, and 33% unfavorably. They are not as hot on Tom Harkin, giving him a 46-40 mark, but that still puts him in a tie for 50th out of 86 senators on which PPP has polled. Grassley is tied for 25th.
PPP surveyed 798 Iowa voters from August 19th to 21st. The margin of error for the survey is +/- 3.5%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Terry Branstad’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 41%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 44%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q2 If you could redo last fall’s election for
Governor, would you vote for Republican Terry
Branstad or Democrat Chet Culver?
Terry Branstad ………………………………………… 48%
Chet Culver…………………………………………….. 44%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%
Q3 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator
Chuck Grassley’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 52%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 33%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q4 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Tom
Harkin’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 46%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q5 If there was an election for the legislature
today, generally speaking, do you think you
would vote for the Democratic or Republican
candidate from your district?
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 44%
Republican……………………………………………… 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%
Q6 Do you think same-sex marriage should be
legal or illegal?
Legal……………………………………………………… 46%
Illegal …………………………………………………….. 45%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%
Q7 Which of the following best describes your
opinion on gay marriage: gay couples should
be allowed to legally marry, or gay couples
should be allowed to form civil unions but not
legally marry, or there should be no legal
recognition of a gay couple’s relationship?
Gay couples should be allowed to legally
marry ……………………………………………………..40%
Gay couples should be allowed to form civil
unions but not marry …………………………………30%
There should be no legal recognition of a gay
couple’s relationship …………………………………29%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 2%
Q8 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 40%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 49%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 11%
Q9 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 9%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 19%
Moderate………………………………………………… 32%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 23%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 17%
Q10 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 48%
Man……………………………………………………….. 52%
Q11 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 35%
Republican……………………………………………… 32%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 33%
Q12 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 94%
Other……………………………………………………… 6%
Q13 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 28%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 40%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%
