Raleigh, N.C. – There is always a lot of talk, as states jockey for position in the presidential nominating calendar, of the race pushing back into the holiday season. Iowa and New Hampshire are perennially guaranteed the first two dates, and are again threatening to slip into December, if necessary, to preserve their position. Reporters and candidates and their staff may not like slogging through the snow around Christmas, but Iowans are fine with it. 48% would support a December caucus this year, and only 33% would oppose it. At 55-29, Republicans are most in favor.
With the Democrats hanging onto a one-seat majority in the State Senate, Iowa’s place as the only Midwestern state to have legal same-sex marriage could be threatened. If the Senate passes a House-adopted measure to put a referendum on the ballot which would amend the constitution to define marriage as between one man and one woman, that question would pass if the vote were today. 50% say they would support such language in their founding document, and 43% would oppose it. Independents support it, 53-39, and Republicans, 75-18. To fail, Democratic support would have to fall from 24%.
Over half (51%) of Iowans root for the University of Iowa, while a quarter prefer Iowa State. Another 25% are not fans of either team. There is talk of ISU joining Iowa in the Big 10, but only 15% of voters favor the idea, while 44% want ISU to stay where it is.
Iowa is definitely Cubs country. A third of voters root for Chicago’s underdog MLB team, with only 11% for the Minnesota Twins, 9% for each the Chicago White Sox and St. Louis Cardinals, and four other teams in the low single digits. 21% claim none of these loyalties.
In football, things are more divided. 23% like the Green Bay Packers, 20% the Chicago Bears, 14% the Minnesota Vikings, with five teams way back at 1-6%. 22% either are not football fans or wear another team’s colors.
PPP surveyed 749 Iowa voters from October 7th to 10th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-3.6%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you consider yourself to be more a fan of
Iowa or Iowa State, or do you not like either
team?
Iowa ………………………………………………………. 51%
Iowa State………………………………………………. 25%
Not a fan of either team ……………………………. 25%
Q2 Would you prefer that Iowa State was in the
Big 12 or the Big 10?
Big 12 ……………………………………………………. 44%
Big 10 ……………………………………………………. 15%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 41%
Q3 Is your favorite Major League Baseball team
the Atlanta Braves, Chicago Cubs, Chicago
White Sox, Kansas City Royals, Milwaukee
Brewers, Minnesota Twins, New York Yankees,
or St. Louis Cardinals?
Braves …………………………………………………… 6%
Cubs ……………………………………………………… 33%
White Sox ………………………………………………. 9%
Royals……………………………………………………. 4%
Brewers …………………………………………………. 4%
Twins……………………………………………………… 11%
Yankees …………………………………………………. 5%
Cardinals………………………………………………… 9%
Someone else/Not a baseball fan ………………. 21%
Q4 Is your favorite NFL team the Chicago Bears,
Dallas Cowboys, Green Bay Packers,
Indianapolis Colts, Kansas City Chiefs,
Minnesota Vikings, Pittsburgh Steelers, or St.
Louis Rams?
Bears …………………………………………………….. 20%
Cowboys………………………………………………… 7%
Packers………………………………………………….. 23%
Colts ……………………………………………………… 3%
Chiefs ……………………………………………………. 6%
Vikings …………………………………………………… 14%
Steelers………………………………………………….. 5%
Rams …………………………………………………….. 1%
Someone else/Not a football fan………………… 22%
Q5 If the only way Iowa could ensure having the
first Republican contest in the country was to
move it to December, would you support or
oppose that move?
Support ………………………………………………….. 48%
Oppose ………………………………………………….. 33%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 20%
Q6 Would you vote for or against a constitutional
amendment that says the following: “Marriage
between one man and one woman shall be the
only legal union valid or recognized in this
state”?
Would vote for it………………………………………. 50%
Would vote against it ……………………………….. 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%
Q7 Do you think same-sex marriage should be
legal or illegal?
Legal……………………………………………………… 41%
Illegal …………………………………………………….. 48%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%
Q8 Which of the following best describes your
opinion on gay marriage: gay couples should
be allowed to legally marry, or gay couples
should be allowed to form civil unions but not
legally marry, or there should be no legal
recognition of a gay couple’s relationship?
Gay couples should be allowed to legally
marry ……………………………………………………..37%
Gay couples should be allowed to form civil
unions but not marry …………………………………30%
There should be no legal recognition of a gay
couple’s relationship …………………………………29%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 4%
Q9 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 41%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 48%
Someone Else/Don’t Remember………………… 11%
Q10 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 12%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 18%
Moderate………………………………………………… 29%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 24%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 18%
Q11 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 49%
Man……………………………………………………….. 51%
Q12 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a
Republican, press 2. If you are an independent
or identify with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 39%
Republican……………………………………………… 35%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 26%
Q13 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 91%
Other……………………………………………………… 9%
Q14 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 10%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 28%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 42%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%
Q15 Old Congressional District
1st…………………………………………………………. 20%
2nd………………………………………………………… 23%
3rd ………………………………………………………… 18%
4th…………………………………………………………. 20%
5th…………………………………………………………. 18%
Q16 New Congressional District
1st…………………………………………………………. 25%
2nd………………………………………………………… 28%
3rd ………………………………………………………… 20%
4th…………………………………………………………. 26%
