Raleigh, N.C. – President Obama’s net approval rating has slipped six points, and he is doing a corresponding three to 12 points worse on the margin against his potential Republican foes in Iowa than when PPP last polled the state a month and a half ago.
Obama bests Mitt Romney, 46-42, down six points from 49-39 in August. He leads Herman Cain, 47-41, a decline of 12 points from 51-33. President Obama also tops Ron Paul, 47-40. Rick Perry and Michele Bachmann each lag, 49-39. For Bachmann, that is a seven-point improvement from 51-34; Perry is up three from 51-38. Newt Gingrich is down, 50-39. Paul and Gingrich were not tested in the previous poll.
The president won the state by almost ten points in 2008, and poll respondents report having voted for him by only seven, a slight tightening in projected turnout. In that sense, only Romney and Cain outdo, while Paul matches, John McCain’s performance.
Now only 43% approve of the president’s job performance, with 52% disapproving. That compares to August’s 45-48. He is up five points with his own party, the opposite of the trend seen most places lately. But he has slipped ten points with the GOP and 13 with independents. By comparison, though, all of the Republicans but new frontrunner Cain are less popular than the president. Cain’s 35-40 net favorability is still under water, but it stacks up well against Romney’s 34-52, Paul’s 27-55, Gingrich’s 29-59, Bachmann’s 27-58, and Perry’s 21-60. Independents disapprove of Obama’s handling of his duties by 17 points, yet Romney and Cain are the only two candidates who lead with independents, but by only respective two- and seven-point margins.
“Obama’s unpopular in Iowa but he appears to be in position to win the state next year anyway,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Extended exposure to the Republican field of candidates doesn’t seem to have Democrats and independents in Iowa pining to vote for the GOP next fall.”
PPP surveyed 749 Iowa voters from October 7th to 10th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-3.6%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 43%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 52%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 5%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Michele Bachmann?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 27%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 58%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Herman Cain?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 35%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 25%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 29%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 59%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ron Paul?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 27%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 55%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Perry?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 21%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 60%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 34%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 52%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q8 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Michele Bachmann, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 49%
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 39%
Undecided………………………………………………. 12%
Q9 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Herman Cain, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 47%
Herman Cain…………………………………………… 41%
Undecided………………………………………………. 12%
Q10 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Newt Gingrich, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 50%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 39%
Undecided………………………………………………. 11%
Q11 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Ron
Paul, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 47%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 40%
Undecided………………………………………………. 13%
Q12 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Rick
Perry, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 49%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 39%
Undecided………………………………………………. 13%
Q13 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 46%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 42%
Undecided………………………………………………. 12%
Q14 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 41%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 48%
Someone Else/Don’t Remember………………… 11%
Q15 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 12%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 18%
Moderate………………………………………………… 29%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 24%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 18%
Q16 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 49%
Man……………………………………………………….. 51%
Q17 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a
Republican, press 2. If you are an independent
or identify with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 39%
Republican……………………………………………… 35%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 26%
Q18 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 91%
Other……………………………………………………… 9%
Q19 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 10%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 28%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 42%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%
