Raleigh, N.C. – While many politicians viewed as safe were ousted in Republican primaries last year, taking down George Allen appears to be too far a reach for the Tea Party. Against a generic more conservative challenger, Allen leads 58-23. Even very conservative voters prefer Allen 54-31. Against actual opponents, Allen’s lead is even starker. Allen takes 68% of the vote to 6% for Jamie Radtke, 2% for Tim Donner, 2% for EW. Jackson, and 0% for David McCormick. Allen benefits from a strong 63-18 favorability rating while Radtke is unknown and underwater at 7-16.
On the other hand, the race for Governor in 2013 could be fertile ground for a candidate of the far right. In a primary contest between Lieutenant Governor Bill Bolling and Virginia Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli, Cuccinelli leads 45-21. Cuccinelli is strongest with very conservatives with whom he leads Bolling 56-15. However, even moderates give Cuccinelli the edge, 40-22. While both politicians are well liked, Cuccinelli is much better known than Bolling, rating 56-15 compared to Bolling’s 28-13.
The Presidential primary in Virginia depends greatly on whether or not Sarah Palin enters the race. Without Palin, Michele Bachmann leads with 21% of the vote to Rick Perry and Mitt Romney’s 18%, Herman Cain’s 10%, Newt Gingrich’s 8%, Ron Paul’s 7%, Tim Pawlenty’s 3%, and Jon Huntsman’s 2%. On the other hand, if Palin throws her hat into the ring, Perry leads with 20% to 16% for Romney, 15% for Bachmann, 10% for Cain, 6% for Gingrich and Paul, 2% for Pawlenty, and just 1% for Huntsman.
Perry’s Virginia showing is particularly strong, and his best performance aside from his home state of Texas. Perry is in direct competition with Bachmann as they both achieve their greatest strength with very conservative voters. In a field without Palin, Bachmann leads Perry with very conservatives just 27-24, with Romney way back at 13%. On the other hand, among moderates Romney dominates with 29% with Bachmann at 18% and Perry all the way back at 9%. However, moderates are just 19% of the GOP electorate.
PPP surveyed 400 Virginia Republican primary voters from July 21th to 24th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-4.9%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Michele Bachmann?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 46%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 34%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 20%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Herman Cain?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 44%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 20%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 36%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sarah Palin?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 61%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 28%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Perry?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 44%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 18%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 38%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 50%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 32%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of George Allen?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 63%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 18%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jamie Radtke?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 7%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 16%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 77%
Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Bill Bolling?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 28%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 13%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 59%
Q9 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ken Cuccinelli?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 56%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 15%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 30%
Q10 The announced Republican candidates for
Senate are George Allen, Tim Donner, E.W.
Jackson, David McCormick, and Jamie Radtke.
If the primary was today, who would you vote
for?
George Allen…………………………………………… 68%
Tim Donner …………………………………………….. 2%
E.W. Jackson………………………………………….. 2%
David McCormick…………………………………….. 0%
Jamie Radtke………………………………………….. 6%
Undecided………………………………………………. 22%
Q11 Do you think George Allen is too liberal, too
conservative, or about right?
Too liberal ………………………………………………. 7%
Too conservative……………………………………… 9%
About right ……………………………………………… 67%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%
Q12 Generally speaking, would you prefer that the
Republican nominee for Senate next year was
George Allen or someone more conservative
than him?
George Allen…………………………………………… 58%
Someone more conservative …………………….. 23%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%
Q13 If the candidates for Governor in 2013 were Bill
Bolling and Ken Cuccinelli, who would you vote
for?
Bill Bolling ………………………………………………. 21%
Ken Cuccinelli …………………………………………. 45%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 34%
Q14 If the candidates for President next year were
Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain, Newt
Gingrich, Jon Huntsman, Sarah Palin, Ron
Paul, Tim Pawlenty, Rick Perry, and Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 15%
Herman Cain…………………………………………… 10%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 6%
Jon Huntsman…………………………………………. 1%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 13%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 6%
Tim Pawlenty ………………………………………….. 2%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 20%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 16%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 11%
Q15 If Sarah Palin didn’t end up running for
President, and the candidates were Michele
Bachmann, Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich, Jon
Huntsman, Ron Paul, Tim Pawlenty, Rick
Perry, and Mitt Romney, who would you vote
for?
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 21%
Herman Cain…………………………………………… 10%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 8%
Jon Huntsman…………………………………………. 2%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 7%
Tim Pawlenty ………………………………………….. 3%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 18%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 18%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 13%
Q16 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 1%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 4%
Moderate………………………………………………… 19%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 33%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 43%
Q17 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 46%
Man……………………………………………………….. 54%
Q18 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 8%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 22%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 43%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 27%
