Raleigh, N.C. – Except for 1976, South Carolina has not voted for a Democratic presidential candidate since 1960, when the South was still blue. But add the Palmetto State to the growing list of previously unreachable stars for President Obama, as he beats Sarah Palin, 47-41, and Newt Gingrich, 44-43, while trailing native son Jim DeMint only 45-47, Mike Huckabee, 43-49, and Mitt Romney, 42-49. John McCain prevailed here by a slightly larger nine points, already much closer than 2004 and other recent elections.
The president manages to hold more of his base in each matchup than the Republicans do of theirs. In most red states, Romney and Huckabee, as here typically the two strongest, outdo the president in that department. Bolstered by the large African-American population which has remained behind him through thick and thin, Obama unites 89% or 90% of Democrats regardless of his opponent, a good sign for his ability to excite and turn out the base. Palin pulls only 76% and Gingrich 80% of the GOP, but the others take either 86% or 87%, also pretty good, especially when they have a five-point registration advantage built in.
Palin does so poorly not only because only about three quarters of the GOP is behind her but because Obama builds an enormous 50-32 edge with independents over her. A pretty sizeable 22% of voters do not affiliate with either party, and except for a narrow 40-36 lead over Gingrich, they favor the Republicans in the other matchups by two (versus DeMint) or eight points (against both Romney and Huckabee).
With a 49-34 approval rating, DeMint is tied for the 15th most popular senator in his home state of the 78 PPP has measured in the last year. Less than 60% of Democrats disapprove, but when it comes down to a choice between him and their president, most of the 19% who approve abandon him. The president, for his part, has a pretty decent 44-52 approval rating, about in the middle of the pack of 41 states in which he has been gauged in the last year. Palin and Gingrich are about as unpopular here as in most blue states.
“People forget that South Carolina was a single digit race in 2008,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “If Republicans nominate a weak enough candidate and Obama can improve on his share of the white vote he has a chance there.”
PPP surveyed 1,167 South Carolina voters from January 28th to 30th. The survey’s margin of error is +/-2.9%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 44%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 52%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 4%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 32%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 46%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 21%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mike Huckabee?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 48%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 32%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 20%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sarah Palin?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 34%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 58%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 42%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 34%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 24%
Q6 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Jim
DeMint’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 49%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 34%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%
Q7 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Newt Gingrich, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 44%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 43%
Undecided………………………………………………. 12%
Q8 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mike
Huckabee, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 43%
Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 49%
Undecided………………………………………………. 8%
Q9 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Sarah Palin, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 47%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 41%
Undecided………………………………………………. 12%
Q10 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 42%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 49%
Undecided………………………………………………. 9%
Q11 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Jim
DeMint, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 45%
Jim DeMint……………………………………………… 47%
Undecided………………………………………………. 8%
Q12 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 53%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 40%
Someone Else/Don’t Remember………………… 7%
Q13 Would you describe yourself as a liberal,
moderate, or conservative?
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 15%
Moderate………………………………………………… 44%
Conservative…………………………………………… 40%
Q14 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 54%
Man……………………………………………………….. 46%
Q15 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a
Republican, press 2. If you are an independent
or identify with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 37%
Republican……………………………………………… 42%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 22%
Q16 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 69%
African-American …………………………………….. 26%
Other……………………………………………………… 4%
Q17 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 8%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 28%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 44%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%
