Raleigh, N.C. – Hillary Clinton maintained
her lead in New Hampshire against potential opponents for president by margins
of four to 12 points each this weekend. Republican Chris Christie gave her the
closest challenge with 39% to her 43%.
Yet her dominance has dropped a bit among Democrats since we polled in
April. Among likely Democratic primary voters, 57% chose her for their
presidential candidate, compared to 68% five months ago. Joe Biden was next
with 12%, then Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren with 11%, up from 5% in
April.
With Clinton out of the race, Biden leads with 36%, a drop since his 44% in
April. 23% said they weren’t sure or wanted someone else, and 20% chose Warren.
With Clinton and Biden taken out, Warren leads with 33%, up from 22% of the
vote in April. 30% were not sure or wanted someone else, and 14% chose Andrew
Cuomo, who fell from 23% in April. Voters age 18 to 45 were the least cohesive
in their support of Clinton with 47% choosing her, compared to more than 60% of
those over age 45. 17% of 18-45-year-old voters chose Warren, and 14% picked
Biden.
On the Republican side, Rand Paul was the favorite in a nine-way contest with
20% of the vote, followed immediately by Christie with 19% and Jeb Bush with
14%. Moderates preferred Christie, while people who called themselves somewhat
or very conservative chose Paul. Men strongly supported Paul, while women chose
Christie. Independent voters split between the two candidates, 24% for Paul and
22% for Christie.
“Hillary Clinton remains an overwhelming favorite on the Democratic side
even if she’s slipped a little bit from this spring,” said Dean Debnam,
President of Public Policy Polling. “Meanwhile the Republicans have lots of
candidates drawing double digit support, although Marco Rubio has fallen
precipitously from where he was in April.”
PPP surveyed 1038 New
Hampshire voters, including an oversample of 455 usual Democratic primary
voters and 491 usual Republican
primary voters, between September 13-16, 2013. The margin of error for the
overall survey is +/- 3.0%, +/- 4.6% for the Democratic portion, and +/- 4.4%
for the GOP portion. This poll was not authorized or paid for by any campaign
or political organization. PPP’s surveys are conducted through automated
telephone interviews.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Republican Primary Toplines
Q1 Given the choices of Kelly Ayotte, Jeb Bush,
Chris Christie, Ted Cruz, Bobby Jindal, Rand
Paul, Marco Rubio, Paul Ryan, and Rick
Santorum, who would you most like to see as
the GOP candidate for President in 2016?
Kelly Ayotte………… .12%
Jeb Bush……………. .14%
Chris Christie ……… .19%
Ted Cruz ……………. .10%
Bobby Jindal ………. . 3%
Rand Paul ………….. .20%
Marco Rubio ………. . 7%
Paul Ryan ………….. . 7%
Rick Santorum……. . 2%
Someone else/Not
sure…………………….6%
Q2 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 2%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 6%
Moderate………………………………………………… 24%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 37%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 31%
Q3 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 48%
Man……………………………………………………….. 52%
Q4 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 1%
Republican……………………………………………… 57%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 42%
Q5 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 36%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 40%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 24%
Democratic Primary Toplines
Q1 Given the choices of Joe Biden, Cory Booker,
Hillary Clinton, Andrew Cuomo, Kirsten
Gillibrand, Martin O’Malley, Brian Schweitzer,
Mark Warner, and Elizabeth Warren, who
would you most like to see as the Democratic
candidate for President in 2016?
Joe Biden…………… .12%
Cory Booker……….. . 4%
Hillary Clinton……… .57%
Andrew Cuomo …… . 2%
Kirsten Gillibrand … . 1%
Martin O’Malley…… . 0%
Brian Schweitzer …. . 0%
Mark Warner ………. . 1%
Elizabeth Warren … .11%
Someone else/Not
sure…………………….11%
Q2 Given the choices of Joe Biden, Cory Booker,
Andrew Cuomo, Kirsten Gillibrand, Martin
O’Malley, Brian Schweitzer, Mark Warner, and
Elizabeth Warren, who would you most like to
see as the Democratic candidate for President
in 2016?
Joe Biden…………… .36%
Cory Booker……….. . 9%
Andrew Cuomo …… . 7%
Kirsten Gillibrand … . 1%
Martin O’Malley…… . 1%
Brian Schweitzer …. . 1%
Mark Warner ………. . 1%
Elizabeth Warren … .20%
Someone else/Not
sure…………………….23%
Q3 If neither Hillary Clinton nor Joe Biden ran for
President in 2016, who would you most like to
see as the Democratic nominee?
Cory Booker……….. .12%
Andrew Cuomo …… .14%
Kirsten Gillibrand … . 5%
Martin O’Malley…… . 4%
Brian Schweitzer …. . 1%
Mark Warner ………. . 2%
Elizabeth Warren … .33%
Someone else/Not
sure…………………….30%
Q4 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 26%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 34%
Moderate………………………………………………… 34%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 4%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 1%
Q5 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 59%
Man……………………………………………………….. 41%
Q6 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 68%
Republican……………………………………………… 3%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 30%
Q7 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 39%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 38%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 23%
General Election Toplines
Q1 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Kelly
Ayotte, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton……… .50%
Kelly Ayotte………… .42%
Not sure …………….. . 7%
Q2 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Jeb
Bush, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton……… .49%
Jeb Bush……………. .40%
Not sure …………….. .10%
Q3 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Chris
Christie, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton……… .43%
Chris Christie ……… .39%
Not sure …………….. .18%
Q4 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Ted
Cruz, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton……… .50%
Ted Cruz ……………. .38%
Not sure …………….. .12%
Q5 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Rand
Paul, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton……… .51%
Rand Paul ………….. .41%
Not sure …………….. . 8%
Q6 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Paul
Ryan, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton……… .50%
Paul Ryan ………….. .41%
Not sure …………….. . 9%
Q7 In the last presidential election, did you vote for
Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 52%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 44%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 4%
Q8 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 12%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 19%
Moderate………………………………………………… 33%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 21%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 15%
Q9 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 54%
Man……………………………………………………….. 46%
Q10 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 31%
Republican……………………………………………… 30%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 39%
Q11 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 91%
Other……………………………………………………… 9%
Q12 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 30%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 47%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 23%
