The upcoming Illinois Senatorial election could be close. Alexi Giannoulias has inched passed Republican opponent Mark Kirk. Voters prefer Giannoulias 31 to 30, in comparison to April when Giannoulias was down 37-33. Still 24% of voters remain undecided.
The controversy surrounding Kirk’s military record has taken a toll on him. 45% of voters believe he hasn’t been truthful about his military service. The scandal has pushed Kirk into the headlines and has gained him unsightly name recognition. Kirk’s favorability ratings have taken a hit—31% of voters have an unfavorable opinion of him today in comparison with 23% on the previous poll.
Moderates are more likely to vote for Giannoulias 33 to 27. However while Giannoulias is strong amongst moderates, Independents favor Kirk, 26 to 20. This trend has persisted across the country recently, breaking the traditional mold. Independents tend to lean to the right of Republicans, while moderates lean left of center.
While Giannoulias is doing well amongst Democrats and liberals, LeAlan Jones of the Green Party could take votes away from the Democratic nominee. Currently 16% of those who voted for President Obama support Jones. Jones is also doing well amongst Independents and could also take away from Kirk’s base.
Obama’s approval ratings have risen slightly over the past month in his home state from 50 to 53. Senator Dick Durbin’s approval ratings have also slightly increased over the past month. Voters still generally disapprove of Senator Roland Burris’s job performance; 19:54.
“Voters in Illinois are tuning into a soap opera not an election,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “The Senate election is about scandals not issues. The candidate who can turn the focus of the race from their personal issues to the real issues will have the best chance of winning over undecideds.”
PPP surveyed 552 Illinois voters from June 12th– 13th. The survey’s margin of error is +/- 4.2%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Barack
Obama’s job performance?
Approve…………….. 53%
Disapprove………… 41%
Not Sure……………. 6%
Q2 Do you support or oppose President Obama’s
health care plan, or do you not have an
opinion?
Support ………………………………………………….. 45%
Oppose ………………………………………………….. 43%
No Opinion……………………………………………… 12%
Q3 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator
Roland Burris’ job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 19%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 54%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 27%
Q4 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Dick
Durbin’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 49%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 36%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 15%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Alexi Giannoulias?
Favorable ………….. 23%
Unfavorable……….. 31%
Not Sure……………. 45%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mark Kirk?
Favorable……………. 23%
Unfavorable ………… 31%
Not Sure……………… 46%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of LeAlan Jones?
Favorable……………. 2%
Unfavorable ………… 13%
Not Sure……………… 84%
Q8 The candidates for Senate are Democrat Alexi
Giannoulias, Republican Mark Kirk, and Green
Party candidate LeAlan Jones. If the election
was today, who would you vote for?
Alexi Giannoulias …………………………………….. 31%
Mark Kirk………………………………………………… 30%
LeAlan Jones ………………………………………….. 14%
Undecided………………………………………………. 24%
Q9 Do you think Mark Kirk has been truthful about
his military record?
Yes ……………………………………………………….. 10%
No …………………………………………………………. 45%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 45%
Q10 How closely have you been following the
recent news about Mark Kirk’s military record?
Very closely ……………………………………………. 22%
Somewhat closely……………………………………. 35%
Not very closely ………………………………………. 43%
Q11 Who did you vote for President last year?
John McCain…………………………………………… 36%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 55%
Someone Else/Don’t Remember………………… 9%
Q12 If you are a liberal, press 1. If a moderate,
press 2. If a conservative, press 3.
Liberal…………………………………………………….. 23%
Moderate………………………………………………… 43%
Conservative…………………………………………… 34%
Q13 If you are a woman, press 1, if a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 51%
Man……………………………………………………….. 49%
Q14 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If you are a
Republican, press 2. If you are an independent
or identify with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 42%
Republican……………………………………………… 29%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 29%
Q15 If you are white, press 1. If African American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 73%
African American …………………………………….. 15%
Other……………………………………………………… 12%
Q16 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1 now. If
you are 30 to 45, press 2. If you are 46 to 65,
press 3. If older, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 6%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 25%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 45%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 24%
