Raleigh, N.C. – Hillary Clinton continues to have a dominant lead in Iowa Democrats’ preferences for their 2016 presidential nominee almost three years before actual candidates will begin chowing down on cobs of corn. The straw poll on the Republican side is much closer, with three candidates locked at the top and two others in double digits.
Clinton tops Vice President Joe Biden 60-18, with no one else even approaching 5%. New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo and Massachusetts Senate candidate Elizabeth Warren each have 3%, Montana Gov. Brian Schweitzer and Virginia Sen. Mark Warner are at 1%, and Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley and Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick register almost no support. 14% favor someone else or are not sure.
The victors of the two most recent caucuses, Mike Huckabee and Rick Santorum, are tied at 17%, with New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie right on their tails at 16%, Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul at 11%, Florida Sen. Marco Rubio at 10%, former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush at 8%, Wisconsin Rep. Paul Ryan at 6%, and Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker and former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin each at 4%, with only 8% not behind a candidate.
If Clinton did not run, Biden would lead Cuomo 36-14, with Warren at 8% and the others still in the low single digits. Without Biden, Cuomo leads Warren 20-11.
The GOP contenders are all pretty well-known and well-liked, but beyond Clinton and Biden, there are few recognizable names on the left side of the aisle. The least-known Republican is Walker, of whom 38% surprisingly have no opinion, but 55% of Democrats cannot say how they feel about Cuomo, 60% of Warren, and 80-90% of the others. Absent Clinton, the Democratic race will be wide open. But Republicans tend to gravitate to the next in line, and their field will likely be stocked with rising stars who took a pass on Obama. Speaking of whom, few had yet heard of the state senator from Illinois at this point in 2004.
PPP surveyed 416 usual Iowa Democratic primary voters and 363 usual Republican primary voters from July 12th to 15th. The margin of error for the Democratic portion is +/-4.8%, and +/-5.1% for the GOP sample. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Democratic Primary Toplines
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Joe Biden?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 79%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 11%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Hillary Clinton?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 90%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 6%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 4%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Andrew Cuomo?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 26%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 19%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 55%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Martin O’Malley?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 4%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 8%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 89%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Deval Patrick?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 10%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 9%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 81%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Brian Schweitzer?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 5%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 10%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 85%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mark Warner?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 10%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 10%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 80%
Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Elizabeth Warren?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 30%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 10%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 60%
Q9 Given the choices of Joe Biden, Hillary Clinton,
Andrew Cuomo, Martin O’Malley, Deval
Patrick, Brian Schweitzer, Mark Warner, and
Elizabeth Warren, who would you most like to
see as the Democratic candidate for President
in 2016?
Joe Biden……………………………………………….. 18%
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 60%
Andrew Cuomo ……………………………………….. 3%
Martin O’Malley……………………………………….. 0%
Deval Patrick…………………………………………… 0%
Brian Schweitzer ……………………………………… 1%
Mark Warner …………………………………………… 1%
Elizabeth Warren …………………………………….. 3%
Someone else/Undecided…………………………. 14%
Q10 If Hillary Clinton didn’t run for President in
2016, who would you most like to see as the
Democratic nominee?
Joe Biden……………………………………………….. 36%
Andrew Cuomo ……………………………………….. 14%
Martin O’Malley……………………………………….. 2%
Deval Patrick…………………………………………… 0%
Brian Schweitzer ……………………………………… 4%
Mark Warner …………………………………………… 3%
Elizabeth Warren …………………………………….. 8%
Someone else/Undecided…………………………. 34%
Q11 If neither Hillary Clinton nor Joe Biden ran for
President in 2016, who would you most like to
see as the Democratic nominee?
Andrew Cuomo ……………………………………….. 20%
Martin O’Malley……………………………………….. 2%
Deval Patrick…………………………………………… 4%
Brian Schweitzer ……………………………………… 4%
Mark Warner …………………………………………… 6%
Elizabeth Warren …………………………………….. 11%
Someone else/Undecided…………………………. 53%
Q12 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 14%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 37%
Moderate………………………………………………… 38%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 8%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 3%
Q13 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 57%
Man……………………………………………………….. 43%
Q14 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 81%
Republican……………………………………………… 1%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 18%
Q15 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 32%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 39%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 29%
Republican Primary Toplines
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jeb Bush?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 53%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 19%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 28%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Chris Christie?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 57%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 17%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 26%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mike Huckabee?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 68%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 20%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sarah Palin?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 60%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 26%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rand Paul?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 49%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 29%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 22%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Marco Rubio?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 57%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 13%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 30%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Paul Ryan?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 49%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 14%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 36%
Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Santorum?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 65%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 22%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q9 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Scott Walker?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 50%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 12%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 38%
Q10 If Mitt Romney was not a candidate in 2016,
and the Republican candidates for President
were Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, Mike Huckabee,
Sarah Palin, Rand Paul, Marco Rubio, Paul
Ryan, Rick Santorum, and Scott Walker, who
would you most like to see as the GOP
candidate for President?
Jeb Bush………………………………………………… 8%
Chris Christie ………………………………………….. 16%
Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 17%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 4%
Rand Paul ………………………………………………. 11%
Marco Rubio …………………………………………… 10%
Paul Ryan ………………………………………………. 6%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 17%
Scott Walker …………………………………………… 4%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 8%
Q11 Do you consider yourself to be a member of
the Tea Party?
Yes………………………………………………………… 25%
No …………………………………………………………. 64%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%
Q12 Are you an Evangelical Christian, or not?
Are an Evangelical…………………………………… 46%
Are not …………………………………………………… 54%
Q13 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 1%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 6%
Moderate………………………………………………… 16%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 40%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 37%
Q14 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 48%
Man……………………………………………………….. 52%
Q15 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 3%
Republican……………………………………………… 81%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 17%
Q16 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 34%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 36%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 30%
