Raleigh, N.C. – There has been grumbling among the president’s base lately, but when push comes to shove, few Democrats would actually want to replace Obama on the ticket next year. Iowa would be the first stop for any challenger to his re-nomination, but there, Democratic caucusgoers are pretty satisfied with the job he is doing. 79% approve and only 16% disapprove of his performance in office. But rather than leftists, it is actually the few Democrats who place themselves to the right of center that give him the poorest marks. The 4% who are furthest to the right actually disapprove, 39-57, and the 11% who say they are just somewhat conservative approve only 51-43.
It is no surprise, then, that two-thirds of these voters want Obama headlining the ballot, and that among the rest, almost three times as many (20%) say they would actually prefer a more conservative candidate than a more liberal one (7%). Again, 77-78% of liberals are behind the president, but while 18% of the most liberal favor a candidate to his left, only 5% of the somewhat liberal do.
“All the noise about a primary challenge to Barack Obama from the left is just that- noise,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “There is no appetite for someone to seriously contest his nomination for a second term.”
It is way early, but Iowa Democrats say Hillary Clinton would be their first choice to be the party nominee once Barack Obama’s time in office is over. In an eight-candidate field of possible entrants into the open-seat race and one big-name celebrity, Clinton earns 44% of her party’s caucusgoers’ support, followed way behind by Vice President Joe Biden’s 13%, and everyone else in single digits: New York Governor Andrew Cuomo’s 7%, former Wisconsin Senator Russ Feingold’s 5%, Oprah Winfrey’s 4%, Newark, NJ, Mayor Cory Booker’s 3%, and Montana Governor Brian Schweitzer and Virginia Senator Mark Warner at 1% each. Unsurprisingly, 21% are not sure or would prefer someone else.
There is a huge gender gap, as over half (53%) of women give Clinton their support, versus only a third of men.
PPP surveyed 484 usual Iowa Democratic primary voters from April 15th to 17th. The survey’s margin of error is +/-4.5%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 79%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 16%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 5%
Q2 If the Democratic choices for President next
year were Barack Obama, someone more
liberal than him, or someone more
conservative than him, who would you vote
for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 66%
Someone more liberal than him…………………. 7%
Someone more conservative than him………… 20%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%
Q3 Given the choices of Joe Biden, Cory Booker,
Hillary Clinton, Andrew Cuomo, Russ Feingold,
Brian Schweitzer, Mark Warner, and Oprah
Winfrey who would you most like to see as the
next Democratic candidate for President after
Barack Obama?
Joe Biden……………………………………………….. 13%
Cory Booker……………………………………………. 3%
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 44%
Andrew Cuomo ……………………………………….. 7%
Russ Feingold…………………………………………. 5%
Brian Schweitzer ……………………………………… 1%
Mark Warner …………………………………………… 1%
Oprah Winfrey…………………………………………. 4%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 21%
Q4 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 14%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 33%
Moderate………………………………………………… 37%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 11%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 4%
Q5 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 58%
Man……………………………………………………….. 42%
Q6 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 22%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 46%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%
