Raleigh, N.C. – Texas Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison’s weak showing in her gubernatorial primary challenge to partymate Rick Perry earlier this year revealed rancor in the state’s conservative ranks for Hutchison’s more moderate politics and 17-year tenure in Washington. If she were to make a bid for re-nomination by the GOP today, she would edge one potential named opponent in the primary, but would be an easy target if the Tea Party mood among her party’s base lasts into the next cycle.
In an early 2012 test among usual Republican primary voters in the state, Hutchison would beat Railroad Commissioner Michael Williams, 34-13. But with 53% undecided, and 62% saying they would rather choose a more conservative candidate than Hutchison herself, she could be in for the Bob Bennett treatment in less than two years. Only 25% prefer Hutchison outright when stacked against a generic conservative challenger.
Hutchison’s 2:1 job performance numbers would be outstanding if they were among the general electorate, but at 56-28 among the most fervent Republican voters, Hutchison has a relatively weak standing with those she needs to earn another six years in the Senate. 49% think she should definitely run for re-election next time, but 36% think she should step aside. Almost as many, 38%, think Hutchison is too liberal, as the 44% who see her views as “about right.”
In the early presidential primary field, Newt Gingrich leads with 23% to Sarah Palin and Mike Huckabee at 19%, Mitt Romney at 17%, Texas’ own Ron Paul at only 8%, and someone else with 5%. In PPP’s previous measure in June, the breakdown was similar: Gingrich 25, Huckabee 22, Romney 18, Palin 17, and Paul 10.
“If Republican activists can succeed in picking off establishment Republicans this year and get them elected in the general, expect more revolt in the near future,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling.
PPP surveyed 400 Texas Republican primary voters from September 2nd to 6th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-4.9%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
If you would like an interview regarding this release, please contact Dean Debnam at (888) 621-6988 or 919-880-4888.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Kay
Bailey Hutchison’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 56%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 28%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%
Q2 Do you think Kay Bailey Hutchison should run
for reelection in 2012?
Yes………………………………………………………… 49%
No …………………………………………………………. 36%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q3 Do you think that Kay Bailey Hutchison is too
liberal, too conservative, or about right?
Too liberal ………………………………………………. 38%
Too conservative……………………………………… 8%
About right ……………………………………………… 44%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%
Q4 If the 2012 Republican primary for Senate was
between Kay Bailey Hutchison and a more
conservative challenger, who would you vote
for?
Kay Bailey Hutchison……………………………….. 25%
More conservative challenger ……………………. 62%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q5 If the Republican candidates for Senate in
2012 were Kay Bailey Hutchison and Michael
Williams, who would you vote for?
Kay Bailey Hutchison……………………………….. 34%
Michael Williams ……………………………………… 13%
Undecided………………………………………………. 53%
Q6 If the Republican candidates for President in
2012 were Newt Gingrich, Mike Huckabee,
Sarah Palin, Ron Paul, and Mitt Romney who
would you support?
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 23%
Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 19%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 19%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 8%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 17%
Someone else…………………………………………. 5%
Undecided………………………………………………. 10%
Q7 If you are a liberal, press 1. If a moderate,
press 2. If a conservative, press 3.
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 3%
Moderate………………………………………………… 23%
Conservative…………………………………………… 75%
Q8 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 48%
Man……………………………………………………….. 52%
Q9 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1 now. If
you are 30 to 45, press 2. If you are 46 to 65,
press 3. If older, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 3%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 22%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 50%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 25%
