Raleigh, N.C. – For the second month in a row, Mike Huckabee heads the national field of Republican presidential candidates, but his lead has shrunk considerably as Mitt Romney has gained. Last month, Huckabee had a 24-14 advantage over Romney and Sarah Palin, but now he has declined to 20% over Romney’s 17%, Palin’s 15%, and Newt Gingrich’s 12%. As usual, four other candidates earn single-digit support, and the “second-place candidate” is the 18% who are undecided or favor someone unnamed. With no one having officially declared his candidacy, this race is anybody’s ballgame.
A 51% majority of national GOP primary voters erroneously think President Obama was not born in the U.S. 28% know that he was. With the latter, Palin’s favorability rating is 41-52—other than Ron Paul, the only candidate these voters view negatively. But with birthers, she has a soaring 83-12, far higher than for any of the others.
“Any thought that the birther theory has been put to rest can be thrown out the window with this poll,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “That view is still widely held in Republican circles.”
Luckily for Huckabee, he does well with both groups, leading Palin 24-19 with birthers and trailing Romney only 17-19 with non-birthers..
When asked whether the top four are more suited to be President or Vice President, Romney gets the best marks, 50-24, followed by Huckabee’s 44-28. The numbers for Palin are flipped, with 29% saying she is more qualified for the Oval Office and 46% thinking her slated for #2. Overwhelming majorities of all the other candidates’ supporters think Palin best for the veep slot, while everyone, even Palin’s supporters, think Romney fit for the top of the ticket.
Two prospective candidates who made waves with activists at this past weekend’s CPAC were Paul and Donald Trump. But neither man is well liked by the overall base. Paul is viewed negatively, 30-37, and Trump’s numbers with Republicans look like Palin’s with the general electorate, 29-56. By contrast, the other candidates are seen favorably by 55-65% of GOP partisans.
PPP surveyed 400 Republican primary voters nationwide from February 11th to 13th. The survey’s margin of error is +/-4.9%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mike Huckabee?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 58%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 15%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 28%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sarah Palin?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 65%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 25%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 55%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 26%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 55%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 25%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 20%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ron Paul?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 30%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 33%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Donald Trump?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 29%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 56%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q7 Do you think Newt Gingrich is most qualified to
be President or Vice President?
President………………………………………………… 27%
Vice president …………………………………………. 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 36%
Q8 Do you think Mike Huckabee is most qualified
to be President or Vice President?
President………………………………………………… 44%
Vice president …………………………………………. 28%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 29%
Q9 Do you think Sarah Palin is most qualified to be
President or Vice President?
President………………………………………………… 29%
Vice president …………………………………………. 46%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 25%
Q10 Do you think Mitt Romney is most qualified to
be President or Vice President?
President………………………………………………… 50%
Vice president …………………………………………. 24%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 26%
Q11 Do you think Barack Obama was born in the
United States?
Yes………………………………………………………… 28%
No …………………………………………………………. 51%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 21%
Q12 If the Republican candidates for President in
2012 were Mitch Daniels, Newt Gingrich, Mike
Huckabee, Sarah Palin, Ron Paul, Tim
Pawlenty, Mitt Romney, and John Thune who
would you vote for?
Mitch Daniels ………………………………………….. 4%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 12%
Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 20%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 15%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 8%
Tim Pawlenty ………………………………………….. 4%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 17%
John Thune…………………………………………….. 1%
Someone else/Undecided…………………………. 18%
Q13 Given the same list of choices who would your
second choice be for President in 2012?
Mitch Daniels ………………………………………….. 3%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 13%
Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 20%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 17%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 6%
Tim Pawlenty ………………………………………….. 4%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 12%
John Thune…………………………………………….. 1%
Someone else/Undecided…………………………. 25%
Q14 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 1%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 5%
Moderate………………………………………………… 15%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 41%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 39%
Q15 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 47%
Man……………………………………………………….. 53%
Q16 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a
Republican, press 2. If you are an independent
or identify with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 2%
Republican……………………………………………… 85%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 12%
Q17 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 16%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 28%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 36%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%
