Raleigh, N.C. – While he is also typically the strongest challenger to President Obama there, Mike Huckabee continues to show strength with Republicans in rural red and swing states. He leads the presidential primary field with almost 30% support in each North Carolina and West Virginia
Bucking previous polls, results PPP released earlier this week showed Mitt Romney usurping Huckabee’s role as the strongest challenger to President Obama in the general election in the Tar Heel State, trailing by only three points. But Romney faces an obstacle in getting to that point, for he places fourth with only 11% in the state’s primary, behind Huckabee’s 27%, Newt Gingrich’s 18%, and Sarah Palin’s 16%, and ahead of Tim Pawlenty’s 7%, Ron Paul’s 6%, Mitch Daniels’ 3%, and John Thune’s 1%, with 10% unsure or going elsewhere.
The trend of Romney placing well with moderates (at 19% behind Huckabee’s 21%) continues, but he drops all the way to 9% with conservatives, who make up three-quarters of the electorate. That puts him in a distant fourth behind Huckabee’s 29%, Gingrich’s 21%, and Palin’s 17%, and just nosing out Pawlenty’s 8% with that group.
The competition for Huckabee in the Mountain State is a little stronger, but if he were to prevail at the convention, a recent PPP release showed he would be the only candidate to beat the president by a larger margin than John McCain did. In the primary, he has 28% to Palin’s 23%, Gingrich’s 17%, Romney’s 10%, Paul’s 6%, Pawlenty’s 5%, Daniels’ 2%, and Thune’s less than 1%, with 8% undecided or preferring someone else.
Here, Romney fares about equally with both moderates and conservatives, as does Gingrich. But Huckabee prevails overall because he counters Palin’s 26-21 lead with moderates with his own stronger 32-21 edge with conservatives. West Virginia’s Republicans are actually slightly less right-wing than North Carolina’s (it is their Democrats that make the state so conservative), but still 70% place themselves to the right of center.
PPP surveyed 400 usual North Carolina Republican primary voters, with a +/-4.9% margin of error, and 355 usual West Virginia Republican primary voters, with a +/-5.2% margin of error, from January 20th to 23rd. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
North Carolina Survey Results:
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 62%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 18%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 20%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mike Huckabee?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 70%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 14%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sarah Palin?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 72%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 22%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 50%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 26%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 24%
Q5 If the Republican candidates for President next
year were Mitch Daniels, Newt Gingrich, Mike
Huckabee, Sarah Palin, Ron Paul, Tim
Pawlenty, Mitt Romney, and John Thune who
would you vote for?
Mitch Daniels ………………………………………….. 3%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 18%
Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 27%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 16%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 6%
Tim Pawlenty ………………………………………….. 7%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 11%
John Thune…………………………………………….. 1%
Someone else/Undecided…………………………. 10%
Q6 Would you describe yourself as a liberal,
moderate, or conservative?
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 3%
Moderate………………………………………………… 23%
Conservative…………………………………………… 74%
Q7 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 48%
Man……………………………………………………….. 52%
Q8 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 8%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 28%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 40%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 24%
West Virginia Survey Results:
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Shelley Moore Capito?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 78%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 9%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Clark Barnes?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 9%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 12%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 79%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Betty Ireland?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 38%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 11%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 51%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mike Stuart?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 7%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 10%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 83%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 60%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 19%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 21%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mike Huckabee?
Favorable…………….76%
Unfavorable ………… 9%
Not sure ………………15%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sarah Palin?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 69%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 18%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 56%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 18%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 25%
Q9 If the Republican candidates for Governor were
Clark Barnes, Shelley Moore Capito, Betty
Ireland, Mark Sorsaia, and Mike Stuart who
would you vote for?
Clark Barnes …………………………………………… 5%
Shelley Moore Capito……………………………….. 72%
Betty Ireland……………………………………………. 10%
Mark Sorsaia…………………………………………… 1%
Mike Stuart……………………………………………… 1%
Undecided………………………………………………. 10%
Q10 If the Republican candidates for Governor were
just Clark Barnes, Betty Ireland, Mark Sorsaia,
and Mike Stuart who would you vote for?
Clark Barnes …………………………………………… 11%
Betty Ireland……………………………………………. 46%
Mark Sorsaia…………………………………………… 9%
Mike Stuart……………………………………………… 4%
Undecided………………………………………………. 31%
Q11 If the Republican candidates for President next
year were Mitch Daniels, Newt Gingrich, Mike
Huckabee, Sarah Palin, Ron Paul, Tim
Pawlenty, Mitt Romney, and John Thune who
would you vote for?
Mitch Daniels ………………………………………….. 2%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 17%
Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 28%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 23%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 6%
Tim Pawlenty ………………………………………….. 5%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 10%
John Thune…………………………………………….. 0%
Someone else/Undecided…………………………. 8%
Q12 Would you describe yourself as a liberal,
moderate, or conservative?
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 4%
Moderate………………………………………………… 26%
Conservative…………………………………………… 70%
Q13 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 49%
Man……………………………………………………….. 51%
Q14 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 5%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 24%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 48%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 23%
