Raleigh, N.C. – After placing fourth in PPP’s previous poll of Republican voters nationwide, Mike Huckabee has surged into a solid lead in the presidential sweepstakes, and for the first time, someone other than Ron Paul leads the bottom tier, although barely. Huckabee has 24% to Sarah Palin’s and Mitt Romney’s 14%, Newt Gingrich’s 11%, Tim Pawlenty’s 8%, Paul’s 7%, Mitch Daniels’ 4%, and John Thune’s 1%. In November, Huckabee was back at 16% behind Palin’s 21%, Gingrich’s 19%, and Romney’s 18%, and Pawlenty was tied with Paul at 5%, followed by Thune’s 3% and Daniels’ 2%. The movement for Pawlenty is within the margin of error, but he is usually in the low single digits in any national or state-level polls, interchangeable with Thune and Daniels.
In the last two months, Huckabee has leapt from 14% to 25% with the three-quarters of Republicans who call themselves conservative. Gingrich has done the reverse, declining from 23% to 11% with them, while Palin has fallen back to 16% from 24%, and Romney holds steady at 14%. But Romney, who usually makes up for weakness among conservatives with strength among moderates, has gone from a 25-20 lead over Huckabee with centrists to second place at 18% behind Huckabee’s consistent 20%.
Overall, there is no clear advantage for any one candidate in voters’ second-choice preferences. As two months ago, Huckabee is the fallback for Gingrich supporters if Gingrich chooses not to run, so the correlation between the latter’s decline and the former’s rise makes sense. But Huckabee also has people questioning his readiness to step into the ring, with few organizational preparations apparent. If he stays out, Palin would be the clear beneficiary—he is her greatest threat to the nomination, with both competing for similar ideological and geographical territory. If Palin herself decides not to run, her supporters would be mostly undecided and split between the other three. Romney appears all in, but his supporters are divided evenly between two less likely candidates, Gingrich and Huckabee, if he does not pull the trigger.
“Mike Huckabee is in an odd position right now,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “The polls are certainly in his favor but he doesn’t seem to be moving too swiftly toward actually running.”
PPP surveyed 515 usual national Republican primary voters from January 14th to 16th. The survey’s margin of error is +/-4.3%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mike Huckabee?
Favorable……………. 64%
Unfavorable ………… 16%
Not sure ……………… 20%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sarah Palin?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 65%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 26%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 58%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 24%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 52%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 28%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 20%
Q5 If the Republican candidates for President in
2012 were Mitch Daniels, Newt Gingrich, Mike
Huckabee, Sarah Palin, Ron Paul, Tim
Pawlenty, Mitt Romney, and John Thune who
would you vote for?
Mitch Daniels ………………………………………….. 4%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 11%
Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 24%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 14%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 7%
Tim Pawlenty ………………………………………….. 8%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 14%
John Thune…………………………………………….. 1%
Someone else/Undecided…………………………. 16%
Q6 Given the same list of choices who would your
second choice be for President in 2012?
Mitch Daniels ………………………………………….. 4%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 11%
Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 14%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 12%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 7%
Tim Pawlenty ………………………………………….. 7%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 11%
John Thune…………………………………………….. 1%
Someone else/Undecided…………………………. 33%
Q7 Would you describe yourself as a liberal,
moderate, or conservative?
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 3%
Moderate………………………………………………… 25%
Conservative…………………………………………… 73%
Q8 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 46%
Man……………………………………………………….. 54%
Q9 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 10%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 26%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 44%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%
