Polls

Huckabee has strong lead in Iowa caucus

| Tom Jensen

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President_Primary_Graph Raleigh, N.C. – With Mitt Romney dominating the early New Hampshire primary race in a recent PPP poll, Iowa’s caucus will be an important early opportunity for an alternative candidate to emerge heading into New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Nevada (where today’s release also shows Romney with a significant lead).  Mike Huckabee and Romney took first and second place, respectively, in the Iowa caucus three years ago, and remain in those same spots in an early look at next year’s race.  Luckily for Huckabee, he has retained a little more of his strength than has Romney. 

After taking 35% of delegates in 2008, Huckabee now earns 30% of the first-choice votes to Mitt Romney’s 18%.  Romney earned 25% in 2008.  Romney is followed by Sarah Palin’s 15%, Newt Gingrich’s 13%, Ron Paul’s 6%, Tim Pawlenty’s 4%, John Thune’s 3%, and Mitch Daniels’ 1%. 

Huckabee would be bolstered by the other candidates’ supporters, if they are not viable in a particular caucus, getting twice as many (19%) second-choice votes statewide as Romney (9%) does.  Palin (13%) and Gingrich (12%) could also benefit a little.

Romney suffers, as in many states, with conservatives.  At 25%, he almost matches Huckabee’s 29% of moderates, but he gets only half of Huckabee’s support with the conservative supermajority which will dominate caucus-night participants, placing a distant third at 15% to Huckabee’s 30%, Palin’s 17%, and just ahead of Gingrich’s 14%.

PPP tested the favorability ratings of 13 potential nomination contenders, and found that except the four frontrunners and 2008 candidates Paul and Rudy Giuliani, the other seven are unknown to between half and three-quarters of these seasoned Republican voters.  These candidates will have plenty of flesh-pressing and house partying to do between now and next year if they want to survive past the early contests.

“Mike Huckabee continues to be very formidable in Iowa,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “That leads to two important questions: is he even going to run and if he does and wins Iowa again can he build on that to a greater extent than he did in 2008?”

PPP surveyed 494 usual Iowa Republican primary voters from January 7th to 9th.  The survey’s margin of error is +/-4.4%.  Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.

Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 53%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 27%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 20%

Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mike Huckabee?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 72%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 16%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%

Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sarah Palin?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 60%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 29%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%

Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 57%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 26%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%

Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Haley Barbour?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 22%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 14%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 64%

Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitch Daniels?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 11%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 11%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 78%

Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jim DeMint?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 22%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 10%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 68%

Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rudy Giuliani?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 49%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 30%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 21%

Q9 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ron Paul?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 47%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 23%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 31%

Q10 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tim Pawlenty?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 34%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 12%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 54%

Q11 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mike Pence?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 16%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 8%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 76%

Q12 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Santorum?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 28%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 9%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 63%

Q13 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of John Thune?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 20%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 9%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 70%

Q14 If the Republican candidates for President next
year were Mitch Daniels, Newt Gingrich, Mike
Huckabee, Sarah Palin, Ron Paul, Tim
Pawlenty, Mitt Romney, and John Thune who
would you vote for?
Mitch Daniels ………………………………………….. 1%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 13%
Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 30%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 15%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 6%
Tim Pawlenty ………………………………………….. 4%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 18%
John Thune…………………………………………….. 3%
Someone else/Undecided…………………………. 10%

Q15 Who would your second choice be as the
Republican candidate for President next year?
Mitch Daniels ………………………………………….. 2%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 12%
Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 19%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 13%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 5%
Tim Pawlenty ………………………………………….. 5%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 9%
John Thune…………………………………………….. 3%
Someone else/Undecided…………………………. 31%

Q16 Do you support or oppose the goals of the Tea
Party?
Support ………………………………………………….. 72%
Oppose ………………………………………………….. 13%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%

Q17 Do you consider yourself to be a member of
the Tea Party?
Yes………………………………………………………… 21%
No …………………………………………………………. 64%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%

Q18 Do you think the Republican Party is too
conservative, too liberal, or about right?
Too conservative……………………………………… 13%
Too liberal ………………………………………………. 31%
About right ……………………………………………… 48%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%

Q19 Would you describe yourself as a liberal,
moderate, or conservative?
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 2%
Moderate………………………………………………… 29%
Conservative…………………………………………… 69%

Q20 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 45%
Man……………………………………………………….. 55%

Q21 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 6%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 24%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 42%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 28%

Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

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