Raleigh, N.C. – When PPP last polled Iowa in early January, President Obama was enjoying a bit of a surge in popularity following the lame-duck session of Congress. He has since slipped, and his small leads over his main prospective challengers have accordingly closed. Half of Iowans approved of the president’s job performance three months ago, and 43% disapproved. But he is now slightly underwater, as nationwide, with only 46% approving and 48% disapproving. The slippage has come across the board. In January, 13% of Republicans approved and only 8% of Democrats disapproved, but those numbers are now reversed, while independents have moved from 49-40 to 41-50.
The good news is that the Republicans have all gotten slightly less popular as well, and none is better liked than the president. But re-election bids are more a mandate on the incumbent than the challenger, and a slightly unpopular incumbent against a slightly unpopular challenger usually produces a tie.
As such, Obama is now knotted at 45% with Mike Huckabee, winner of the 2008 caucuses and current leader of the early 2012 delegate race, per Tuesday’s release. In January, Obama led, 47-43. The president leads Mitt Romney, 45-41, down a hair from 47-41 in the previous poll. If there is any solace for the president, it is that he has maintained double-digit leads over Newt Gingrich (50-39 versus 51-38) and Sarah Palin (53-36 versus 53-37). He similarly trounces Donald Trump, 51-35.
If Trump were to lose the GOP nomination and launch an independent bid, he would eat severely into Romney’s support and essentially none into Obama’s. Obama would lead a three-way race with 43% over Romney’s 27% and Trump’s 21%. Trump brings Romney down from 81% to only 56% of the GOP and from 37% of independents to only 22%.
“Obama could have a much harder time of it in Iowa next year than he did in 2008- unless the Republicans bail him out with a Trump or Palin like nominee,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “There are certainly doubts about Obama in the state but there are even bigger doubts about some of the most prominent GOP contenders.”
PPP surveyed 1,109 Iowa voters from April 15th to 17th. The survey’s margin of error is +/-2.9%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 46%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 48%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 24%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 56%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 21%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mike Huckabee?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 41%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sarah Palin?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 29%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 63%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 36%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 44%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 20%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Donald Trump?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 27%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 61%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q7 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Newt Gingrich, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 50%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 39%
Undecided………………………………………………. 11%
Q8 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mike
Huckabee, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 45%
Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 45%
Undecided………………………………………………. 10%
Q9 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Sarah Palin, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 53%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 36%
Undecided………………………………………………. 11%
Q10 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 45%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 41%
Undecided………………………………………………. 14%
Q11 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Donald Trump, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 51%
Donald Trump …………………………………………. 35%
Undecided………………………………………………. 14%
Q12 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama, Republican Mitt
Romney, and Donald Trump running as an
independent, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 43%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 27%
Donald Trump …………………………………………. 21%
Undecided………………………………………………. 9%
Q13 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 42%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 50%
Someone Else/Don’t Remember………………… 7%
Q14 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 8%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 19%
Moderate………………………………………………… 30%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 22%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 20%
Q15 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 51%
Man……………………………………………………….. 49%
Q16 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a
Republican, press 2. If you are an independent
or identify with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 38%
Republican……………………………………………… 33%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 29%
Q17 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 96%
Other……………………………………………………… 4%
Q18 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 10%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 26%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 44%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%
