PPP’s polling was exceedingly accurate in the 2022 midterm election, as it was most years since 2017. The exception to that of course for both PPP and the industry at large was the 2020 Presidential election, raising the question of whether we could get accurate numbers with Donald Trump on the ballot.

The answer to that proved to be a resounding yes. PPP has become one of the most prolific private Democratic pollsters in the country, particularly specializing in US House and Senate races and state legislative races. Here’s how our polls broke down in 2024:

• We polled 42 House races that were decided by 10 points or less, and our average error on the margin of those polls was 2.4 points. To put that in perspective 538 finds that the average error on House polls historically is 6.1 points, so we cut that in less than half. We came within a point of the final margin in 19 of 42 districts, within 3 points in 30 of 42, and within 5 points in 39 of 42.
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• We polled 12 of the 13 Senate races that were decided by 10 points or less after Labor Day. Our average error on the margin of those polls was 2.5 points, compared to the historical average error of 5.4 points on Senate polls that 538 finds. Most of our error came just on the Maryland, New Jersey, and Texas Senate races that were only on the periphery of competitiveness. In the other 9 contests our average error was just 1.6 points, coming within 3 points on all of them.
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• Our two most significant states for legislative race work in 2024 were North Carolina and Wisconsin.
  • In North Carolina across the 12 House and Senate districts we polled in October our average error was 1.9 points, with our polls coming within four points of the final margin in every district.
  • And in Wisconsin across the 14 Assembly and Senate districts we polled in the month before the election our average error was 2.5 points, with our polls coming within three points of the final margin in 12 of 15 districts.

PPP continues to be a beacon of accuracy in polling races at all levels of the ballot. We’re proud of the good work we did for our clients in 2024 and appreciative of the opportunity to do it and we hope to help even more candidates and organizations be successful in the 2025-26 election cycle- not just with elections but also with helping navigate issues in Congress and state legislatures with the second Trump administration.