Raleigh, N.C. – Democrat Kathy Hochul continues to appear poised for an upset victory in Tuesday’s special election for Congress in New York’s 26th Congressional District. She is polling at 42% to 36% for Republican nominee Jane Corwin and 13% for Tea Party candidate Jack Davis.
Since a PPP poll of the race two weeks ago Hochul has gained 7 points of support and Corwin has gained 5 while Davis has dropped by 11. It appears that Hochul has done a good job of staying above the fray as the campaign has taken on an increasingly negative tenor in its final days. Hochul’s favorability is a +14 spread at 51/37, up 8 points from the previous poll when it was +6 at 46/40. Corwin meanwhile has seen a 15 decline in her net favorability. She was already unpopular at -3 (39/42) on our previous poll but that is now much worse at -18 (34/52). Davis has seen the biggest decline in his image though. Voters were evenly split 43/43 in their assessments of him two weeks ago. Now his favorability spread is a horrid -39 with only 23% of voters rating him positively and 62% with a negative opinion.
There’s still reason though to think Corwin could pull this race out. By a 41-39 margin voters in the district would like their new member of Congress to caucus with the Republicans rather than the Democrats in the House. Those planning to vote for Davis hold that sentiment by an even wider margin at 48-20. Davis’ support has been plummeting and if that trend continues and conservatives who don’t really like Corwin hold their nose and end up voting for her anyway she still has a chance to win a narrow victory.
“Kathy Hocul’s possible upset victory Tuesday is partially a reflection of an unusual three way race,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “But it’s also indicative of the new Republican majority becoming very unpopular very fast. Barack Obama is more popular in this district than John Boehner.”
PPP surveyed 1,098 Washington voters from May 12th to 15th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-3.0%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 The candidates in the special election for
Congress are Republican Jane Corwin, Tea
Party candidate Jack Davis, Democrat Kathy
Hochul, and Green Party candidate Ian
Murphy. If the election was today, who would
you vote for?
Jane Corwin……………………………………………. 36%
Jack Davis ……………………………………………… 13%
Kathy Hochul ………………………………………….. 42%
Ian Murphy……………………………………………… 3%
Undecided………………………………………………. 5%
Q2 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 42%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 47%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 11%
Q3 Do you consider yourself to be a member of
the Tea Party?
Yes………………………………………………………… 16%
No …………………………………………………………. 76%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%
Q4 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 7%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 17%
Moderate………………………………………………… 30%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 28%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 18%
Q5 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%
Q6 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a
Republican, press 2. If you are an independent
or a member of another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 36%
Republican……………………………………………… 39%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 25%
Q7 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 90%
Other……………………………………………………… 10%
Q8 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 6%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 22%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 43%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 29%
Q9 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jane Corwin?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 34%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 52%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q10 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jack Davis?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 23%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 62%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q11 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Kathy Hochul?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 51%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q12 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ian Murphy?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 12%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 34%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 54%
Q13 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 42%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 51%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%
Q14 Do you approve or disapprove of the job John
Boehner is doing?
Approve …………………………………………………. 28%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 45%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 27%
Q15 Do you approve or disapprove of the job
Congressional Republicans are doing?
Approve …………………………………………………. 26%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 59%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q16 Would you like the new Congressman from our
district to caucus with the Democrats or the
Republicans in Congress?
Democrats ……………………………………………… 39%
Republicans ……………………………………………. 41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 20%
Q17 Do you think the Republicans are doing a
better job than the Democrats did while in
charge of the House of Representatives, a
worse job, or is it about the same?
A better job …………………………………………….. 34%
A worse job …………………………………………….. 38%
About the same……………………………………….. 27%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 2%
Q18 Do you have more faith in Barack Obama or
Congressional Republicans to lead the country
in the right direction?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 44%
Congressional Republicans ………………………. 45%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%
Q19 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Andrew Cuomo’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 62%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 17%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 21%
Q20 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator
Chuck Schumer’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 54%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 34%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q21 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator
Kirsten Gillibrand’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 43%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 35%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 22%
