Raleigh,
N.C. – If Hillary
Clinton runs for president in 2016, she would likely clear the Democratic
primary field in New Hampshire and could put the general election swing state out
of reach for Republicans, according to PPP’s
latest poll.
In a
nine-way Democratic primary contest, Clinton captures 68% support, followed
distantly by 12% for Joe Biden, 9% for someone else or not sure, 5% for Elizabeth
Warren, 3% for Andrew Cuomo, 2% for Deval Patrick, 1% for Kirsten Gillibrand
and Martin O’Malley, and less than 1% for Brian Schweitzer and Mark Warner.
In
general election match-ups, Clinton would lead Rand Paul by 11 points, 52% to
41%, and Marco Rubio by 14 points, 52% to 38%. She holds sizeable leads with
moderate voters against Paul (68/20) and Rubio (67/18).
“Hillary
Clinton could simultaneously demolish potential primary opponents and push
swing states like New Hampshire into solidly Democratic territory,” said Dean
Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “If she decides to run, that’s a
unique advantage.”
If
Clinton was not a 2016 candidate, Biden would shift into the lead with
Democratic primary voters with 44% support, followed by 21% for someone else or
not sure, 12% for Warren, 9% for Cuomo and Patrick, 2% for Gillibrand, and 1%
for O’Malley, Schweitzer and Warner. If Biden decides against running in 2016,
the big winner right now is 30% for someone else or not sure, followed 23% for
Cuomo, 22% for Warren, 17% for Patrick, 4% for Gillibrand, 2% for O’Malley, and
1% for Schweitzer and Warner.
In a
nine-way GOP primary contest, Paul holds a slim lead with 28% support, followed
closely by 25% for Rubio, 14% for Chris Christie, 11% for someone else or not
sure, 7% for Jeb Bush and Paul Ryan, 4% for Rick Santorum, 3% for Susana
Martinez, and 1% for Bobby Jindal and Rick Perry. Paul leads Rubio 32% to 17%
with independents, who account for a sizable chunk of Republican primary voters.
PPP surveyed 933 New Hampshire voters, as well as 368
usual Democratic primary voters and 409 Republican primary voters, from April 19th
to 21st. The margin of error is +/-3.2% for the overall sample, +/-5.1%
for the Democratic portion and +/-4.9% for the GOP portion. This poll was not
paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys
are conducted through automated telephone interviews.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
General Election Toplines
Q1 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Rand
Paul, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton……… .52%
Rand Paul ………….. .41%
Not sure …………….. . 8%
Q2 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican
Marco Rubio, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton……… .52%
Marco Rubio ………. .38%
Not sure …………….. .10%
Q3 In the last presidential election, did you vote for
Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 51%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 45%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 4%
Q4 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 13%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 18%
Moderate………………………………………………… 31%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 23%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 15%
Q5 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 52%
Man……………………………………………………….. 48%
Q6 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 32%
Republican……………………………………………… 29%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 39%
Q7 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 91%
Other……………………………………………………… 9%
Q8 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 24%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 44%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%
Republican Primary Toplines
Q1 Given the choices of Jeb Bush, Chris Christie,
Bobby Jindal, Susana Martinez, Rand Paul,
Rick Perry, Marco Rubio, Paul Ryan, and Rick
Santorum, who would you most like to see as
the GOP candidate for President in 2016?
Jeb Bush……………. . 7%
Chris Christie ……… .14%
Bobby Jindal ………. . 1%
Susana Martinez…. . 3%
Rand Paul ………….. .28%
Rick Perry ………….. . 1%
Marco Rubio ………. .25%
Paul Ryan ………….. . 7%
Rick Santorum……. . 4%
Someone else/Not
sure…………………….11%
Q2 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 1%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 3%
Moderate………………………………………………… 23%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 41%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 32%
Q3 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 49%
Man……………………………………………………….. 51%
Q4 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 1%
Republican……………………………………………… 59%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 40%
Q5 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 38%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 38%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 23%
Democratic Primary Toplines
Q1 Given the choices of Joe Biden, Hillary Clinton,
Andrew Cuomo, Kirsten Gillibrand, Martin
O’Malley, Deval Patrick, Brian Schweitzer,
Mark Warner, and Elizabeth Warren, who
would you most like to see as the Democratic
candidate for President in 2016?
Joe Biden…………… .12%
Hillary Clinton……… .68%
Andrew Cuomo …… . 3%
Kirsten Gillibrand … . 1%
Martin O’Malley…… . 1%
Deval Patrick………. . 2%
Brian Schweitzer …. . 0%
Mark Warner ………. . 0%
Elizabeth Warren … . 5%
Someone else/Not
sure…………………….9%
Q2 If Hillary Clinton was not a candidate for
President, and the choices were Joe Biden,
Andrew Cuomo, Kirsten Gillibrand, Martin
O’Malley, Deval Patrick, Brian Schweitzer,
Mark Warner, and Elizabeth Warren, who
would you most like to see as the Democratic
candidate for President in 2016?
Joe Biden…………… .44%
Andrew Cuomo …… . 9%
Kirsten Gillibrand … . 2%
Martin O’Malley…… . 1%
Deval Patrick………. . 9%
Brian Schweitzer …. . 1%
Mark Warner ………. . 1%
Elizabeth Warren … .12%
Someone else/Not
sure…………………….21%
Q3 If neither Hillary Clinton nor Joe Biden ran for
President in 2016, who would you most like to
see as the Democratic nominee?
Andrew Cuomo …… .23%
Kirsten Gillibrand … . 4%
Martin O’Malley…… . 2%
Deval Patrick………. .17%
Brian Schweitzer …. . 1%
Mark Warner ………. . 1%
Elizabeth Warren … .22%
Someone else/Not
sure…………………….30%
Q4 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 26%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 33%
Moderate………………………………………………… 34%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 5%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 2%
Q5 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 70%
Republican……………………………………………… 2%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 27%
Q6 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 59%
Man……………………………………………………….. 41%
Q7 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 36%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 44%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%
