Raleigh, N.C. – After coming from way behind in the last few months to beat ethically troubled Scott McInnis in the Republican primary last night, Dan Maes has an even more daunting challenge if he hopes to take the Colorado governorship from the Democrats this fall. Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper leads Maes by double digits whether American Constitution candidate Tom Tancredo stays in the race or not, but when the Republican vote is split, Hickenlooper has a decisive advantage.
In a two-way, Hickenlooper tops Maes 50-38, with 12% undecided. In the three-candidate race, Hickenlooper barely falls to 48%, with Maes and Tancredo locked at 23% and 22% of the vote, respectively; only 7% are undecided then. Hickenlooper gets 11% of the GOP vote against just Maes, to Maes’ 6% of the Democratic vote, but the mayor even gets 10% in the three-way, with Maes at only 48% to Tancredo’s 32% of Republicans. Hickenlooper pulls 87% or 88% of his own party’s support in either configuration, and he leads Maes with independents, 52-29, and has 46% to Tancredo’s 32% and Maes’ 13%.
Unlike in other states, the candidate of the incumbent party does not suffer from the low job performance ratings of the retiring head of state. Bill Ritter has a 33-50 approval margin, but Hickenlooper’s personal favorability is exactly the opposite, 50-33. Even 21% of Republicans like him. After a divisive primary, Maes has only a 23-38 favorability mark. Tancredo is even worse, 27-50. Independents like Hickenlooper by a 47-30 margin, but they dislike the other two by 17-41 and 24-47 margins, respectively.
“Unless Tancredo drops out and Maes suddenly turns things around with independents and brings more of his party to the fold, Democrats have to feel better about retaining this seat than almost any in the country. Hickenlooper is well liked, and he has a near majority even in a three-way race,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling.
PPP surveyed 1,015 Colorado voters from August 7th to 8th. The margin of error for the survey is +/- 3.1%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
If you would like an interview regarding this release, please contact Dean Debnam at (888) 621-6988 or 919-880-4888.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Bill
Ritter’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 33%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 50%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of John Hickenlooper?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 50%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 33%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Dan Maes?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 23%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 38%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 39%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tom Tancredo?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 27%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 50%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 23%
Q5 If the candidates for Governor this fall were
Democrat John Hickenlooper and Republican
Dan Maes, who would you vote for?
John Hickenlooper …………………………………… 50%
Dan Maes ………………………………………………. 38%
Undecided………………………………………………. 12%
Q6 If the candidates for Governor this fall were
Democrat John Hickenlooper, Republican Dan
Maes, and American Constitution Party
candidate Tom Tancredo, who would you vote
for?
John Hickenlooper …………………………………… 48%
Dan Maes ………………………………………………. 23%
Tom Tancredo ………………………………………… 22%
Undecided………………………………………………. 7%
Q7 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 52%
Man……………………………………………………….. 48%
Q8 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If African-American, press 3. If other, press 4.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 14%
White …………………………………………………….. 78%
African-American …………………………………….. 4%
Other……………………………………………………… 4%
Q9 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1 now. If
you are 30 to 45, press 2. If you are 46 to 65,
press 3. If older, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 11%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 24%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 40%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 25%
Q10 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 45%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 49%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 6%
Q11 If you are a liberal, press 1. If a moderate,
press 2. If a conservative, press 3.
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 24%
Moderate………………………………………………… 39%
Conservative…………………………………………… 37%
Q12 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If an independent or some other party,
press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 40%
Republican……………………………………………… 39%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 20%