Raleigh, N.C. – The race for Colorado governor between Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper, the Democrat, and Republican Scott McInnis is now tied at 44% apiece after Hickenlooper led by double digits, 50-39, in March.
Hickenlooper now draws only 78% of his party’s vote, similar to the 79% of the GOP which McInnis earns, but down from the 85% he got in March. He also only gets 9% of the Republican vote, down from 13% in March and now less than McInnis’ 11% of the Democratic vote.
Most crucially, Hickenlooper has seen a 48-34 lead with independents evaporate to a 42-46 deficit, and a 54-37 lead with what is by far the largest age group, those 46 to 65, drop to 46-43. Hickenlooper also led with the 79% of the electorate that is white 47-42, but is now down 42-45. His lead among Hispanics has decreased slightly, from 59-32 to 57-37.
Hickenlooper still enjoys a much more positive favorability rating than most candidates and elected officials in this political climate, at 47-33, but that is a decline from 51-27 just two months ago. The entire drop has come among Republicans (30-41 to 21-57) and independents (49-28 to 44-34).
McInnis is less popular but also less known; his narrow positive margin is the same as in March—28-27 then and 31-30 now.
“John Hickenlooper has an unusual level of personal popularity with independents and Republicans for a Democrat,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “But it’s not translating into a willingness by them to vote for him. Between this race and the Senate contest Colorado will be one of the most hard fought states in the country this year.”
PPP surveyed 1,060 Colorado voters from May 14th to 16th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-3.0%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
If you would like an interview regarding this release, please contact Dean Debnam at (888) 621-6988 or 919-880-4888.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Bill
Ritter’s job performance? If you approve,
press 1. If you disapprove, press 2. If you’re
not sure, press 3.
Approve …………………………………………………. 34%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 52%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 14%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of John Hickenlooper? If favorable, press 1. If
unfavorable, press 2. If you’re not sure, press
3.
Yes ……………………………………………………….. 47%
No …………………………………………………………. 33%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 20%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Scott McInnis? If favorable, press 1. If
unfavorable, press 2. If you’re not sure, press
3.
Favorable……………………………………………….. 31%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 30%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 39%
Q4 If the candidates for Governor this fall were
Democrat John Hickenlooper and Republican
Scott McInnis, who would you vote for? If John
Hickenlooper, press 1. If Scott McInnis, press
2. If you’re undecided, press 3.
Hickenlooper…………………………………………… 44%
McInnis ………………………………………………….. 44%
Undecided………………………………………………. 12%
Q5 Who did you vote for President last year? If
John McCain, press 1. If Barack Obama,
press 2. If someone else or you don’t
remember, press 3.
McCain…………………………………………………… 45%
Obama…………………………………………………… 47%
Someone Else/Don’t Remember………………… 8%
Q6 If you are a liberal, press 1. If a moderate,
press 2. If a conservative, press 3.
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 20%
Moderate………………………………………………… 44%
Conservative…………………………………………… 37%
Q7 If you are a woman, press 1, if a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 50%
Man……………………………………………………….. 50%
Q8 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If you are a
Republican, press 2. If you are an independent
or identify with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 37%
Republican……………………………………………… 33%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 31%
Q9 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If African American, press 3. If other, press 4.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 14%
White …………………………………………………….. 79%
African American …………………………………….. 3%
Other……………………………………………………… 4%
Q10 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1 now. If
you are 30 to 45, press 2. If you are 46 to 65,
press 3. If older, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 8%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 25%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 45%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 22%
