Raleigh, N.C. – When PPP last took a look at the Colorado gubernatorial race, just before Dan Maes’ come-from-behind win over Scott McInnis in the Republican primary, Maes looked dead in the water as Democrat John Hickenlooper took a majority or nearly a majority of the vote whether third-party candidate and former GOP congressman Tom Tancredo remained in the race or not. Since then, Maes has faded even further as Tancredo has stolen many of his supporters and moved into second place. But the overall story remains the same: Hickenlooper is headed for a huge win in what could be the Democrats’ biggest triumph on an otherwise dreary night.
In August’s survey of registered voters, Hickenlooper got 48% of the vote to Maes’ 23% and Tancredo’s 22%. Now, despite PPP moving to a likely voter model with an electorate that has swung toward Republicans by two to four points, Hickenlooper still has 47% to Tancredo’s 33% and Maes’ 13%. As two months ago, 7% remain undecided.
Hickenlooper holds at 84% of the Democratic vote and maintains a similar 50-35-9 lead among independents over Tancredo and Maes. But Maes’ party support has been halved, as a quarter of the GOP has swung from him to Tancredo, who now leads among Maes’ own party members, 56-24. Hickenlooper also gets 11% of Republicans, with Tancredo and Maes earning only 8% and 4% of Democrats, respectively.
Maes’ personal favorability numbers have taken a dive, from an already bad 23-38 before the primary to 12-58 now, a swing of 31 points on the margin. Even Republicans dislike him, 19-52, versus 44-32 in August, a 45-point negative shift. Tancredo has seen a sizeable increase in favor, from 27-50 to 35-45. Hickenlooper, naturally, is still the best liked of the three, at 51-37.
“This race looks like it’s going to end up being closer than might have been expected a month ago when Maes and Tancredo had roughly the same level of support,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “The good news for Hickenlooper is that his support is steady, but he needs to sway a few more folks to get over 50%.”
PPP surveyed 834 likely Colorado voters from September 30th to October 2nd. The margin of error for the survey is +/- 3.4%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 The candidates for Governor are Democrat
John Hickenlooper, Republican Dan Maes, and
American Constitution Party candidate Tom
Tancredo. If the election was today, who would
you vote for?
John Hickenlooper …………………………………… 47%
Dan Maes ………………………………………………. 13%
Tom Tancredo …………………………………………. 33%
Undecided………………………………………………. 7%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of John Hickenlooper?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 51%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Dan Maes?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 12%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 58%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 29%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tom Tancredo?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 35%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 45%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 21%
Q5 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Bill
Ritter’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 38%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 49%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q6 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 48%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 48%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 4%
Q7 If you are a liberal, press 1. If a moderate,
press 2. If a conservative, press 3.
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 23%
Moderate………………………………………………… 42%
Conservative…………………………………………… 36%
Q8 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 50%
Man……………………………………………………….. 50%
Q9 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If an independent or some other party,
press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 36%
Republican……………………………………………… 37%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 27%
Q10 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If African-American, press 3. If other, press 4.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 13%
White …………………………………………………….. 76%
African-American …………………………………….. 5%
Other……………………………………………………… 6%
Q11 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 14%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 28%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 37%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 21%
