Raleigh, N.C. – Last week’s release showed John Ensign trailing every possible Democrat, should he decide to seek another term in 2012. It also showed Dean Heller beating those same Democrats. Part of Heller’s comparative strength was not only a greater appeal across the aisle but also within the party. Indeed, if Heller were the sole challenger to Ensign in a primary right now, he would soundly defeat the incumbent, 52-34. Even when given seven possible choices, 30% of reliable Republicans choose Heller, and only 20% pick Ensign, with Sue Lowden and Danny Tarkanian following at 12% and 10%, respectively, Sharron Angle at 9%, Brian Krolicki at 6%, and John Chachas at 5%.
Behind Ensign’s weak 53-30 intraparty approval rating is a 59-25 margin with conservatives, but he is dragged down a bit by moderates, who split, 40-40. As such, conservatives are actually in favor of Ensign running again, but only by a 47-38 margin. For moderates, that is flipped; they side against his re-election bid, 32-48.
Therefore, it is no surprise that moderates are the driving force behind Heller’s 30-20 lead in the multi-candidate slate; with them, Heller gets 30% to Ensign’s 14%, not far above Lowden and Tarkanian. With conservatives, Heller leads only 30-23. But something interesting happens in the absence of the minor candidates. Their supporters collapse towards Heller in the two-way such that conservatives end up giving Heller an equal margin as do moderates. Thus, head-to-head, Heller romps Ensign, 52-34—the reverse of his approval rating, which suggests a significant chunk of conservatives who approve of his job performance and want him to run for re-election nevertheless would prefer their standard-bearer against the eventual Democratic nominee be someone else.
“John Ensign is going to have a very difficult time getting nominated for another term,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling.
In the early presidential caucus race, Mitt Romney dominates, as he did in 2008, with 31% to Sarah Palin’s 19%, Newt Gingrich’s 18%, Mike Huckabee’s 14%, and Ron Paul’s 7%. Nevada is the rare state where Romney draws his strength from conservatives and Palin from moderates. Palin’s 22% of moderates almost matches Romney’s 25%, but her 17% lags severely behind his 34% of conservatives and even Gingrich’s 20%.
PPP surveyed 400 usual Nevada primary voters from January 3rd to 5th. The survey’s margin of error is +/-4.9%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 63%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 20%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mike Huckabee?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 65%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 22%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sarah Palin?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 70%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 24%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 70%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 18%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%
Q5 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Jon
Ensign’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 53%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 30%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%
Q6 Do you think John Ensign should run for
reelection next year?
Yes………………………………………………………… 42%
No …………………………………………………………. 41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Dean Heller?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 63%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 12%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 25%
Q8 Between Sharron Angle, John Chachas, John
Ensign, Dean Heller, Brian Krolicki, Sue
Lowden, and Danny Tarkanian who would you
most like to see as the Republican Senate
candidate next year?
Sharron Angle…………………………………………. 9%
John Chachas…………………………………………. 5%
John Ensign……………………………………………. 20%
Dean Heller…………………………………………….. 30%
Brian Krolicki…………………………………………… 6%
Sue Lowden……………………………………………. 12%
Danny Tarkanian……………………………………… 10%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 8%
Q9 If the choices for the Republican Senate
candidate next year were just John Ensign and
Dean Heller, who would you vote for?
John Ensign……………………………………………. 34%
Dean Heller…………………………………………….. 52%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q10 If the Republican candidates for President next
year were Mitch Daniels, Newt Gingrich, Mike
Huckabee, Sarah Palin, Ron Paul, Tim
Pawlenty, Mitt Romney, and John Thune who
would you vote for?
Mitch Daniels ………………………………………….. 1%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 18%
Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 14%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 19%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 7%
Tim Pawlenty ………………………………………….. 1%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 31%
John Thune…………………………………………….. 1%
Someone else/Undecided…………………………. 8%
Q11 Who would your second choice be as the
Republican candidate for President next year?
Mitch Daniels ………………………………………….. 5%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 17%
Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 14%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 21%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 6%
Tim Pawlenty ………………………………………….. 5%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 17%
John Thune…………………………………………….. 3%
Someone else/Undecided…………………………. 12%
Q12 Would you describe yourself as a liberal,
moderate, or conservative?
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 2%
Moderate………………………………………………… 30%
Conservative…………………………………………… 68%
Q13 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 48%
Man……………………………………………………….. 52%
Q14 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 8%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 24%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 43%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 25%
