Raleigh, N.C. – Despite voters souring on Dean Heller’s job performance and improving their views of his Democratic opponent Shelley Berkley in the last few months, the appointed Republican senator from Nevada maintains a one-point lead five months from his bid for a full term.
Heller’s job approval numbers are now in the red, with only 36% approving and 39% disapproving of the work he has been doing in D.C. That is a ten-point slide since PPP last took a look at the state just over three months ago. Then, the spread was 43-36.
At the same time, Berkley’s favorability rating is up from 33% to 38%, and her unfavorable level down from 40% to 37%. She basically breaks even, but has equalled Heller in terms of name recognition.
Yet Berkley still trails by a similar deficit to the previous poll; she is down 44-43 now, versus 46-43 in late March to early April. One bright spot is that Berkley has improved a bit with independents. Heller still leads by seven points with them, but that is down from 13 in the last poll.
“Heller has had a consistent small edge in most of our polling, but this’ll be a close race down to the wire,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling.
Looking ahead to his possible re-election bid in two years, Gov. Brian Sandoval starts out with healthy leads against two potential Democratic challengers—18 points over Attorney General Catherine Cortez Masto (51-33) and 22 over Secretary of State Ross Miller (50-28).
With two little-known opponents, these horse races track pretty closely to Sandoval’s stellar approval rating (52-28). Even Democrats do not strongly dislike the work he is doing (35-45), though when given the choice of candidates from their own party, only 18-23% of them stick with Sandoval—still a much larger level of defection than Democrats can afford. Sandoval has his base locked up, and leads Miller by 28 points and Cortez Masto by 34 with independents.
PPP surveyed 500 Nevada voters from June 7th to 10th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-4.4%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Dean
Heller’s job performance?
Approve …………….. .36%
Disapprove…………. .39%
Not sure …………….. .25%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Shelley Berkley?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 38%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 25%
Q3 If the candidates for US Senate this fall were
Republican Dean Heller and Democrat Shelley
Berkley, who would you vote for?
Dean Heller…………………………………………….. 44%
Shelley Berkley ……………………………………….. 43%
Undecided………………………………………………. 13%
Q4 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Brian Sandoval’s job performance?
Approve…………….. 52%
Disapprove………… 28%
Not sure ……………. 19%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Catherine Cortez Masto?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 24%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 22%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 53%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ross Miller?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 23%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 13%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 64%
Q7 If the candidates for Governor in 2014 were
Republican Brian Sandoval and Democrat
Catherine Cortez Masto, who would you vote
for?
Brian Sandoval ……………………………………….. 51%
Catherine Cortez-Masto……………………………. 33%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%
Q8 If the candidates for Governor in 2014 were
Republican Brian Sandoval and Democrat
Ross Miller, who would you vote for?
Brian Sandoval ……………………………………….. 50%
Ross Miller ……………………………………………… 28%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 22%
Q9 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 41%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 50%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 9%
Q10 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 12%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 17%
Moderate………………………………………………… 34%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 23%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 14%
Q11 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%
Q12 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 40%
Republican……………………………………………… 38%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 21%
Q13 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If African-American, press 3. If other, press 4.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 12%
White …………………………………………………….. 72%
African-American …………………………………….. 7%
Other……………………………………………………… 9%
Q14 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 14%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 30%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 36%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%
