Polls

Heller edges Berkley

| Tom Jensen

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SenateGraph Raleigh, N.C. –
The story remains largely the same as when PPP last took a look at the Nevada Senate race three months ago: new incumbent Dean Heller has a few-point lead over likely Democratic nominee Shelley Berkley.

Last time, Heller led, 47-43, and this time, it is 46-43.  Berkley has seen a huge closure in the independent vote.  Where Heller led 56-29 in the previous poll, he ekes out only a 44-41 advantage now.  But self-identified nonpartisan voters account for only about a fifth of the electorate, and that 24-point marginal shrinkage means less than five points in the overall standings, offset by slight adjustments in the two-party vote.  Heller still has his party locked up more than Berkley hers, but her lower profile so far means more Democrats (14%) are undecided than Republicans (only 8%).

When the last poll was conducted, Heller had yet to be appointed to John Ensign’s abandoned seat.  His favorability rating then was a strong 43%, with 29% seeing him negatively.  But his approval rating a few months into his term in the upper chamber of Congress is only 38%, with almost as many (35%) disapproving.  That is because more Republicans are undecided on his actual job performance than him as a person, and because Democrats disapprove in stronger numbers than they expressed an unfavorable opinion, but mostly because independents have moved from 51-21 to only 41-32.

Berkley, meanwhile, splits voters right down the middle, with a third seeing her both favorably and unfavorably.  Her primary opponent, Byron Georgiou, is still a non-entity, and would unsurprisingly trail Heller, 48-31, up from 52-28 in April.

“Any thought that getting appointed to the Senate was going to help Dean Heller’s prospects for a full term can probably be put to rest,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Nevada voters had a much more charitable view of Representative Heller than they now do of Senator Heller.”

PPP surveyed 601 Nevada voters from July 28th to 31st. The margin of error for the survey is +/-4.0%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.

Topline results are below.  Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Dean
Heller’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 38%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 35%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 27%

Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Shelley Berkley?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 33%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 33%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 33%

Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Byron Georgiou?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 4%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 17%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 79%

Q4 If the candidates for US Senate next year were
Democrat Shelley Berkley and Republican
Dean Heller, who would you vote for?
Shelley Berkley ……………………………………….. 43%
Dean Heller…………………………………………….. 46%
Undecided………………………………………………. 12%

Q5 If the candidates for US Senate next year were
Democrat Byron Georgiou and Republican
Dean Heller, who would you vote for?
Byron Georgiou……………………………………….. 31%
Dean Heller…………………………………………….. 48%
Undecided………………………………………………. 20%

Q6 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 43%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 51%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 6%

Q7 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 11%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 18%
Moderate………………………………………………… 29%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 25%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 17%

Q8 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 52%
Man……………………………………………………….. 48%

Q9 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 43%
Republican……………………………………………… 38%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 19%

Q10 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If African American, press 3. If other, press 4.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 16%
White …………………………………………………….. 71%
African American……………………………………… 8%
Other……………………………………………………… 5%

Q11 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 8%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 28%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 44%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%

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