Raleigh, N.C. – In PPP’s first look at the Nevada Senate race since July, Harry Reid is clinging onto a razor-thin lead over Sharron Angle and a host of minor candidates. Reid continues to luck out that he is facing Angle instead of a more mainstream Republican; if Danny Tarkanian had been the GOP nominee, Reid would be slated for defeat.
In the full ballot measure, Reid leads Angle, 47-45, with six others and “none of these candidates” combining for about 7% of the vote. Angle leads 48-40 among independents, but luckily for Reid, they make up only 19% of the electorate. Democrats just edge Republicans, 41-40, in the remainder of the likely voter set, and Reid has 85% of his party to Angle’s 83% of hers, a slight party unity edge that erases her advantage with unaffiliateds. In a direct head to head without the minor candidates Reid leads 49-48. Angle would have a 56-40 lead with independents if Scott Ashjian and the others were not on the ballot.
The problem for Reid, as for many Democrats in this environment, is that Republicans are much more excited to turn out and vote this year than two years ago. The pro-GOP enthusiasm gap, reflected in the self-reported 2008 presidential vote, shows a difference of 10 points between this year’s likely electorate and the last cycle. If this were 2008, and everything else, even the more Republican lean of independents, were true, Reid would have a 52-42 lead over Angle in the multi-candidate field.
Reid should breathe easier, however, that he is not facing Tarkanian, who would top the majority leader 49-43. Tarkanian would pull more Democrats and Reid fewer Republicans than in the Angle matchup, and Tarkanian would have a larger lead with independents by 10 points on the margin.
“Harry Reid has had a small but persistent lead in PPP’s polling of this race,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “If Democratic voters become more engaged over the final three weeks of the campaign he could end up winning by a greater margin than expected.”
PPP surveyed 504 likely Nevada voters from October 7th to 9th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-4.4%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 The candidates for US Senate are Republican
Sharron Angle, Tea Party of Nevada candidate
Scott Ashjian, Independent American Party
candidate Tim Fasano, independent Michael
Haines, independent Jesse Holland,
independent Jeffrey Reeves, Democrat Harry
Reid, and independent Wil Stand. If the
election was today who would you vote for, or
would you vote for none of these candidates?
Sharron Angle…………………………………………. 45%
Scott Ashjian…………………………………………… 2%
Tim Fasano…………………………………………….. 0%
Michael Haines ……………………………………….. 1%
Jesse Holland …………………………………………. 1%
Jeffrey Reeves………………………………………… 1%
Harry Reid………………………………………………. 47%
Wil Stand ……………………………………………….. 0%
None of these candidates …………………………. 2%
Undecided………………………………………………. 1%
Q2 If the candidates for US Senate were just
Republican Sharron Angle and Democrat Harry
Reid, who would you vote for?
Sharron Angle…………………………………………. 48%
Harry Reid………………………………………………. 49%
Undecided………………………………………………. 3%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sharron Angle?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 41%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 53%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Scott Ashjian?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 8%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 38%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 54%
Q5 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Harry
Reid’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 44%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 52%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 4%
Q6 Do you think that Sharron Angle is too liberal,
too conservative, or about right?
Too liberal ………………………………………………. 10%
Too conservative……………………………………… 43%
About right ……………………………………………… 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%
Q7 Do you consider Sharron Angle’s political views
to be mainstream or extremist?
Mainstream ……….. 39%
Extremist …………… 53%
Not sure ……………. 7%
Q8 Do you think Harry Reid or Sharron Angle
would be a more effective US Senator?
Harry Reid………………………………………………. 50%
Sharron Angle…………………………………………. 44%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 5%
Q9 Whose political beliefs do you think are more
similar to yours: Harry Reid’s or Sharron
Angle’s?
Harry Reid’s ………. 49%
Sharron Angle’s….. 45%
Not sure ……………. 7%
Q10 If the candidates for US Senate this fall had
been Democrat Harry Reid and Republican
Danny Tarkanian, who would you have voted
for?
Harry Reid………………………………………………. 43%
Danny Tarkanian……………………………………… 49%
Undecided………………………………………………. 8%
Q11 Do you approve or disapprove of Barack
Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 44%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 52%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 4%
Q12 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 46%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 48%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 6%
Q13 If you are a liberal, press 1. If a moderate,
press 2. If a conservative, press 3.
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 19%
Moderate………………………………………………… 46%
Conservative…………………………………………… 35%
Q14 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 49%
Man……………………………………………………….. 51%
Q15 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 41%
Republican……………………………………………… 40%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 19%
Q16 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If African-American, press 3. If other, press 4.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 17%
White …………………………………………………….. 68%
African-American …………………………………….. 9%
Other……………………………………………………… 6%
Q17 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 6%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 26%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 42%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 26%
