Raleigh, N.C. – Polled over the weekend, before news broke of possible marital infidelity by gubernatorial candidate Nikki Haley, South Carolina Republicans favor her by a wide margin over her primary opponents to replace outgoing governor Mark Sanford. Meanwhile, Jim Rex and Vincent Sheheen are in a tight battle for the Democratic nomination heading into the June 8th vote.
Haley leads at 39%, with the other three contenders grappling for traction in the teens, Henry McMaster at 18, Gresham Barrett at 16, and Andre Bauer at 13. About as many, 14%, are undecided as favor the latter three. Haley and McMaster are both very well liked, with 47-13 and 43-22 favorability marks, while views on Bauer are decidedly negative, at 26-49. Barrett comes in at 28-18.
Sheheen tops Rex 36 to 30, with Robert Ford at 11% and 23% still undecided. Over half of Democratic primary voters still have no opinion of Sheheen and Rex, but Sheheen is more popular, with a 31-11 favorability margin to Rex’s 29-19.
Sanford still gets a 51% job approval rating among his base electorate, to 36% who disapprove. That is similar to December’s 50-34 margin among all Republican voters.
Brought back to the fore with the recent comments by Kentucky Republican Senate nominee Rand Paul, the Civil Rights Act of 1964 is supported by 58% of South Carolina Republican primary voters and opposed by only 15%, with 27% unsure.
“Nikki Haley was clearly headed for a first place finish before yesterday,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Given the magnitude of her current lead the fallout from allegations of an extramarital affair would have to be huge for her not to at least make the runoff.”
PPP surveyed 638 likely South Carolina Republican primary voters, with a margin of error of +/-3.9%, and 410 likely Democratic primary voters, with a margin of error of +/-4.8%, from May 22nd to 23rd. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
If you would like an interview regarding this release, please contact Dean Debnam at (888) 621-6988 or 919-880-4888.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Mark Sanford’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 51%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 36%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 13%
Q2 Do you support or oppose the Civil Rights Act
of 1964?
Support ………………………………………………….. 58%
Oppose ………………………………………………….. 15%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 27%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Gresham Barrett?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 28%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 18%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 54%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Andre Bauer?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 26%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 49%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 25%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Nikki Haley?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 47%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 13%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 39%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Henry McMaster?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 43%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 22%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 34%
Q7 Will you vote in the Democratic or Republican
primary on June 8th, or will you not vote in a
primary?
Democratic primary………………………………….. 0%
Republican primary………………………………….. 100%
Not sure/don’t think you’ll vote in a primary….. 0%
Q8 The Republican candidates for governor are
Gresham Barrett, Andre Bauer, Nikki Haley,
and Henry McMaster. If the election was
today, who would you vote for?
Gresham Barrett ……………………………………… 16%
Andre Bauer……………………………………………. 13%
Nikki Haley……………………………………………… 39%
Henry McMaster ……………………………………… 18%
Undecided………………………………………………. 14%
Q9 Would you describe yourself as a liberal,
moderate, or conservative?
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 3%
Moderate………………………………………………… 23%
Conservative…………………………………………… 74%
Q10 If you are a woman, press 1, if a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 48%
Man……………………………………………………….. 52%
Q11 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If you are a
Republican, press 2. If you are an independent
or identify with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 3%
Republican……………………………………………… 77%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 20%
Q12
803………………………………………………………… 35%
843………………………………………………………… 30%
864………………………………………………………… 35%
