Raleigh, N.C.- The biggest winner
coming out of the North Carolina legislative session might be Kay Hagan. She
leads her two most likely Republican opponents, Thom Tillis and Phil Berger, by
8 points each at 47/39.
Beyond that though it’s clear that the actions of the General Assembly this
year make voters hesitant to give either of their legislative leaders a
promotion. 49% of voters say they’re less likely to support the Speaker of the
House for the Senate because of what happened during this session to only 19%
who are more likely to. And 41% are less likely to support the President Pro
Tem of the State Senate for the US Senate, to 18% who are more likely to.
“North Carolina voters are disgusted with the state legislature,” said Dean
Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “That puts Kay Hagan in a good
position since her opponent is likely to be one of its leaders.”
Hagan has leads of 7-11 points against her other potential opponents as
well. Jim Cain comes closest with a 7 point deficit at 46/39, followed by Greg
Brannon (47/38), Virginia Foxx (48/39), and Mark Harris (46/37) with 9 point
deficits, Heather Grant with a 10 point gap at 47/37, and Lynn Wheeler with an
11 point one at 47/36.
Virginia Foxx remains the top choice of North Carolina Republicans to be
their candidate next year amidst renewed speculation that she might be
interested in a bid. 18% of Republicans say she’d be their top choice for a
candidate to 9% each for Phil Berger and Jim Cain, 8% for Thom Tillis, 7% for
Greg Brannon, 4% for Heather Grant and Mark Harris, and 2% for Lynn Wheeler.
Voters continue to have mixed feelings about Kay Hagan- 42% approve of her with
41% disapproving. But with a weak Republican candidate field and the prospect
of getting to run against the leaders of a very unpopular legislature, she
continues to have pretty large leads for reelection.
PPP surveyed 600
registered voters, including an oversample of 344 Republican primary voters,
between August 8-11, 2013. The margin of error was +/- 4.0% for the overall
survey and +/-5.3% for the GOP sample. This poll was not authorized or paid for
by any campaign or political organization. PPP’s surveys are conducted through
automated telephone interviews.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
General Election Toplines
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 46%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 51%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 3%
Q2 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Kay
Hagan’s job performance?
Approve …………….. .42%
Disapprove…………. .41%
Not sure …………….. .18%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Phil Berger?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 8%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 30%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 62%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Greg Brannon?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 8%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 18%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 74%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jim Cain?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 6%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 20%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 74%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Virginia Foxx?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 18%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 33%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 48%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Heather Grant?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 8%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 18%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 74%
Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mark Harris?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 7%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 15%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 78%
Q9 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Thom Tillis?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 12%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 32%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 56%
Q10 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Lynn Wheeler?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 6%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 18%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 76%
Q11 If the candidates for Senate in 2014 were
Democrat Kay Hagan and Republican Phil
Berger, who would you vote for?
Kay Hagan……………………………………………… 47%
Phil Berger ……………………………………………… 39%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q12 If the candidates for Senate in 2014 were
Democrat Kay Hagan and Republican Greg
Brannon, who would you vote for?
Kay Hagan……………………………………………… 47%
Greg Brannon …………………………………………. 38%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q13 If the candidates for Senate in 2014 were
Democrat Kay Hagan and Republican Jim
Cain, who would you vote for?
Kay Hagan……………………………………………… 46%
Jim Cain…………………………………………………. 39%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q14 If the candidates for Senate in 2014 were
Democrat Kay Hagan and Republican Virginia
Foxx, who would you vote for?
Kay Hagan……………………………………………… 48%
Virginia Foxx …………………………………………… 39%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q15 If the candidates for Senate in 2014 were
Democrat Kay Hagan and Republican Heather
Grant, who would you vote for?
Kay Hagan……………………………………………… 47%
Heather Grant …………………………………………. 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%
Q16 If the candidates for Senate in 2014 were
Democrat Kay Hagan and Republican Mark
Harris, who would you vote for?
Kay Hagan……………………………………………… 46%
Mark Harris …………………………………………….. 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%
Q17 If the candidates for Senate in 2014 were
Democrat Kay Hagan and Republican Thom
Tillis, who would you vote for?
Kay Hagan……………………………………………… 47%
Thom Tillis ……………………………………………… 39%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q18 If the candidates for Senate in 2014 were
Democrat Kay Hagan and Republican Lynn
Wheeler, who would you vote for?
Kay Hagan……………………………………………… 47%
Lynn Wheeler………………………………………….. 36%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%
Q19 Do you approve or disapprove of the job the
General Assembly is doing?
Approve …………….. .24%
Disapprove…………. .54%
Not sure …………….. .21%
Q20 Do the actions of the General Assembly this
year make it more or less likely you would
support the House Speaker for US Senate?
More likely………………………………………………. 19%
Less likely ………………………………………………. 49%
Don’t make a difference ……………………………. 23%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%
Q21 Do the actions of the General Assembly this
year make it more or less likely you would
support the President Pro Tem of the State
Senate for US Senate?
More likely………………………………………………. 18%
Less likely ………………………………………………. 41%
Don’t make a difference ……………………………. 26%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q22 In the last presidential election, did you vote for
Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 45%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 49%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 6%
Q23 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 10%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 16%
Moderate………………………………………………… 32%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 23%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 19%
Q24 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 51%
Man……………………………………………………….. 49%
Q25 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 43%
Republican……………………………………………… 34%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 23%
Q26 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 75%
African-American …………………………………….. 19%
Other……………………………………………………… 6%
Q27 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 26%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 41%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%
Q28 Area Code
252………………………………………………………… 11%
336………………………………………………………… 22%
704………………………………………………………… 20%
828………………………………………………………… 16%
910………………………………………………………… 12%
919………………………………………………………… 20%
Republican Primary Toplines
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Phil Berger?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 10%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 25%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 65%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Greg Brannon?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 7%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 19%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 74%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jim Cain?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 9%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 17%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 74%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Virginia Foxx?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 28%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 24%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 48%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Heather Grant?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 5%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 18%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 77%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mark Harris?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 6%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 15%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 79%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Thom Tillis?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 19%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 19%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 61%
Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Lynn Wheeler?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 6%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 17%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 76%
Q9 Given the choices of Phil Berger, Greg
Brannon, Jim Cain, Virginia Foxx, Heather
Grant, Mark Harris, Thom Tillis, and Lynn
Wheeler, who would you most like to see as
the Republican candidate for Senate in 2014?
Phil Berger …………. . 9%
Greg Brannon …….. . 7%
Jim Cain…………….. . 9%
Virginia Foxx ………. .18%
Heather Grant …….. . 4%
Mark Harris ………… . 4%
Thom Tillis …………. . 8%
Lynn Wheeler……… . 2%
Someone else/Not
sure…………………….40%
Q10 If the Republican candidates for Senate were
just Phil Berger and Thom Tillis, who would you
vote for?
Phil Berger …………. .22%
Thom Tillis …………. .23%
Not sure …………….. .56%
Q11 Would you support or oppose shutting down
the government unless Obamacare is
defunded?
Support ……………… .57%
Oppose ……………… .25%
Not sure …………….. .18%
Q12 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 1%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 6%
Moderate………………………………………………… 16%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 43%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 35%
Q13 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 47%
Man……………………………………………………….. 53%
Q14 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 31%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 40%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 29%
Q15 Area Code
252………………………………………………………… 11%
336………………………………………………………… 25%
704………………………………………………………… 20%
828………………………………………………………… 18%
910………………………………………………………… 12%
919………………………………………………………… 15%
